Will the Amigo share price recover in 2021?

The Amigo share price has more than doubled since the start of 2021. Is the company finally making a comeback? Zaven Boyrazian investigates.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The Amigo (LSE: AMGO) share price has been on fire lately. Since the start of this year, it has gone from 7.9p to around 17p today. That’s nearly a 115% increase in the space of only a few months, but it was roughly at that level a year ago. Is this a sign that the guarantor lending business is ready to make a comeback after its 2019 crash? And should I be adding it to my portfolio?

The 2019 Amigo share price collapse

Back in June 2019, the Amigo share price was trading at around 292p. Since then it has fallen by 95%. So what happened? Concerns started brewing among investors regarding the firm’s ability to collect payments from its borrowers. And what started out as a steady decline quickly turned into a crash, following the publication of a quarterly earnings report.

The report showed that the ratio between revenue and loan impairments had grown to 30%. That means a plenty of customers weren’t paying their bills on time. And so guarantors were having to pick up the tab, subsequently leading to a massive rise in customer complaints, which ultimately sparked an ongoing investigation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

Meanwhile, a conflict erupted between company founder James Benamor and the management team. After openly accusing them of making Amigo commit “slow-motion suicide”, Benamor threatened to liquidate his 60% stake unless shareholders voted to elect a new management team. This coup ultimately failed, and the Amigo share price continued to collapse.

Time for a comeback?

The rising complaints of both customers and creditors have led the management team to apply for a Scheme of Arrangement. If successful, this could allow all parties to be satisfied while simultaneously allowing Amigo to restructure itself and its balance sheet. The process has already begun following approval from the UK High Court last month. However, the final decision won’t be made until 19 May.

Besides this, the management team is also actively seeking to sell the entire business. In fact, it had previously received a formal offer of 20.9p per share last year. This has yet to materialise into a finalised and signed deal. But if it were to go through, or another similar offer is made, then based on the Amigo share price today, it could represent a potential return of around 30%.

The Amigo share price has a high level of risk

The bottom line

The business looks like it’s taking the rights steps to turn itself around. However, this process is likely going to take several years, even with the most optimistic outcomes. Therefore, I’m sceptical that the Amigo share price is going to recover in 2021.

Over the long term, perhaps a recovery will eventually take place, assuming it doesn’t get acquired. But at this stage, I see an exceptionally high level of risk attached to this business. Even the management team acknowledged this by stating that if it fails to acquire the Scheme of Arrangement, the company will likely go bankrupt. Therefore I won’t be adding any of the shares to my portfolio today.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Zaven Boyrazian does not own shares in Amigo Holdings. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »

Silhouette of a bull standing on top of a landscape with the sun setting behind it
Investing Articles

Is the S&P 500 going to 10,000 by 2030? This expert thinks so

One stock market strategist sees animal spirits taking hold and driving the S&P 500 index even higher by the end…

Read more »

Investing Articles

I’m expecting my Phoenix Group shares to give me a total return of 25% in 2025!

Phoenix Group shares have had a difficult few months but that doesn't worry Harvey Jones. He loves their 10%+ yield…

Read more »

Hand of person putting wood cube block with word VALUE on wooden table
Investing Articles

14.5bn reasons why I think the Legal & General share price is at least 11% undervalued

According to our writer, the Legal & General share price doesn’t appear to reflect the underlying profitability of the business. 

Read more »