The Cineworld share price: why I’d sell right now

Cineworld share price looks cheap, but the company will need a miracle to clear its mountain of debt, says this Fool.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The last time I covered the Cineworld (LSE: CINE) share price, I noted that while the stock looked cheap after recent declines, as an investment, it was a risky proposition

This turned out to be the right advice. Following the company’s decision to shut all of its UK and US screens, it now looks as if the business is fighting for its very survival. 

As such, I think it could be time for investors to cut their losses and sell the stock. Today I’m going to explain why I hold this view. 

Cineworld share price: further to fall

At the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Cineworld’s management pulled out all of the stops to try and steer the business through the uncertainty. 

These efforts helped steady the ship, but it’s starting to look as if they weren’t enough.

The company entered the crisis with a fragile balance sheet, which limited its options. At the beginning of the crisis, Cineworld’s net debt to earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) ratio was around five. As a rough guide, a company with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of more than two is considered to have a lot of borrowing.

So, even before the crisis, Cineworld’s financial position was precarious. 

And following the pandemic, customers are wary about spending two hours in an enclosed space with other people. As a result, even though the group had reopened many of its theatres, attendance remained so low the firm wasn’t covering its operating costs. 

Therefore, closing cinemas will help the company. It‘s currently burning around $50m a month keeping the theatres open. 

But this is only half of the picture. Cineworld still has to meet the interest obligations on its $8.2bn of net borrowing.

In the six months to the end of June, interest costs on this borrowing amounted to $310m. This is why the Cineworld share price has slumped in 2020. The numbers suggest the group needs $620m a year just to sustain its debt.

For comparison, the group’s current market capitalisation is just under $450m (£346m). 

Cut losses 

Considering all of the above, I think investors should cut their losses and sell the Cineworld share price. 

The group has so much debt it looks as if a restructuring is almost inevitable. In this situation, shareholders may be left with nothing. As such, while it may be tempting to buy or double down on the stock after its recent declines, I reckon investors should stay away.

The chances of insolvency have increased dramatically this week, and even if the company can stage a recovery, its colossal debt pile will remain a drag on growth for years to come. 

In my opinion, there are plenty of other companies out there that offer better growth potential with much less risk. 

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »

Silhouette of a bull standing on top of a landscape with the sun setting behind it
Investing Articles

Is the S&P 500 going to 10,000 by 2030? This expert thinks so

One stock market strategist sees animal spirits taking hold and driving the S&P 500 index even higher by the end…

Read more »

Investing Articles

I’m expecting my Phoenix Group shares to give me a total return of 25% in 2025!

Phoenix Group shares have had a difficult few months but that doesn't worry Harvey Jones. He loves their 10%+ yield…

Read more »

Hand of person putting wood cube block with word VALUE on wooden table
Investing Articles

14.5bn reasons why I think the Legal & General share price is at least 11% undervalued

According to our writer, the Legal & General share price doesn’t appear to reflect the underlying profitability of the business. 

Read more »