Why I think Royal Mail shares could be heading back to 300p

Royal Mail shares have been on a roll recently and the company’s good performance looks set to continue, says Rupert Hargreaves.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Towards the end of July, I noted that long-term investors might benefit from buying Royal Mail (LSE: RMG) shares, considering the stock’s valuation.

This turned out to be a well-timed piece of advice. Since the article was published, the shares have risen in value by around 30%.  

And I think there could be more to come. Despite this positive performance, the stock continues to trade as a deep discount to its intrinsic value.

Today, I’m going to explain why I believe Royal Mail shares could be heading back to 300p in the medium term. 

Royal Mail shares on offer

Shares in the company jumped after it predicted outstanding parcel deliveries in 2020 alongside its first-half results. The group’s primary UK division recorded a one-third growth in parcel revenue in the five months ending 30 August.

Unfortunately, this growth wasn’t enough to offset increased coronavirus costs and declining letter volumes. Still, thanks to the increase in parcel revenue, management now expects sales at its UK division to hit £75m-£150m in 2020-21. Previously, management was forecasting an overall decline of £250m. 

In addition to this growth, Royal Mail’s overseas parcels subsidiary, GLS, is expected to report revenue growth of 10-14% this financial year. 

All in all, the company has benefited significantly from the increase in parcel volumes this year, and this trend looks set to continue. Royal Mail shares also look set to benefit as a result. 

2020 has been somewhat of an inflection year for the e-commerce market. Internet sales as a percentage of total retail sales jumped to more than 30% in May from 20% at the beginning of the year.

This was a big leap, but it shows just how small this market remains relative to the brick-and-mortar sector. If online sales as a percentage of total retail sales continue to trend higher in the years ahead, Royal Mail could reap significant rewards. 

Undervalued growth

As such, while the business is facing some challenges, I’m optimistic about the outlook for the business in the long run. If management can successfully restructure the company and reduce costs, parcel revenue growth should offset declines in other divisions. The group’s international business also provides a much-needed income stream. 

Even after its recent performance, the stock looks cheap compared to its potential. Royal Mail shares are currently changing hands at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of just 0.5. That indicates the stock offers a wide margin of safety at current levels.

The book value is around 460p. I think it’s unlikely the company will return to this level, but 300p doesn’t seem too unrealistic. Investor sentiment could dramatically improve if Royal Mail can restore its coveted dividend and return to profitability in 2021. 

Therefore, now could be the perfect time to add the stock to a diversified portfolio. The business may continue to face headwinds in the short term. Still, in the long run, I’m optimistic about the outlook for Royal Mail shares, considering its valuation and growth potential.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Petrochemical engineer working at night with digital tablet inside oil and gas refinery plant
Investing Articles

Is now the time to buy BP shares? Here’s what the charts say

The best time to buy shares in a company is when they’re trading at a discount. But the future is…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s how I’d use £50K to aim for a million when the stock market crashes

Seeing a stock market crash as a buying opportunity could prove lucrative for a well-prepared, long-term investor. Christopher Ruane explains…

Read more »

Stack of one pound coins falling over
Investing Articles

It’s up 27% with a P/E of 9! I’m considering the potential of this blossoming penny stock

Despite several years of losses, this UK penny stock has an impressive valuation. I’m looking to see if it could…

Read more »

US Stock

The Nvidia share price falls! Here’s what I think happens next for the S&P 500

Jon Smith reviews the overnight results from Nvidia and explains why this could stall the S&P 500 performance through to…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Down 15% today, is this FTSE 100 share too cheap for me to miss?

JD Sports' share price has tanked after the FTSE 100 share released another profit warning. Is this the opportunity I've…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Up 8% today, is this FTSE 100 growth stock a slam-dunk buy for me?

Halma's share price is soaring thanks to another headline-grabbing trading update. Is the FTSE 100 stock now too good for…

Read more »

Investing Articles

With a P/E ratio of just 10.5 is now a brilliant time to buy a cut-price FTSE 250 tracker?

Harvey Jones says a recent dip in the FTSE 250 leaves the index trading at bargain levels. One stock in…

Read more »

Warren Buffett at a Berkshire Hathaway AGM
Investing Articles

To build a passive income flow, I’d follow this Warren Buffett approach

Warren Buffett has set up passive income streams most people can only dream about. Our writer sees some practical lessons…

Read more »