Is this cheap small-cap stock a perfect contrarian buy?

This fashion retailer has been battered in recent times, but Paul Summers thinks its stock is now temptingly cheap.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Contrarian investing can be a hugely profitable endearvour, but only if you’re sufficiently skilled/lucky enough to pick stocks that are temporarily under pressure over those that are nothing more than value traps. For my part, here are two stocks I think look oversold and could bounce back to form in time. 

Harshly treated

Go back roughly 18 months and fashion/lifestyle retailer Ted Baker (LSE: TED) saw its share price riding high. Since then, a perfect storm of consumer jitters, bad weather, product issues and allegations of ‘forced hugging’ made against (and vehemently denied by) founder and former CEO Ray Kelvin have sent the value of the company crashing. At the close last Friday, the very same shares that were trading around 3,000p back in March 2018 could be yours for just 952p.

I still think the market has been a little too harsh on the company. Ted Baker remains a great brand with solid growth potential overseas and a history of generating high returns on the capital it invests. The recent product licence agreement reached with FTSE 100 clothing stalwart Next is another positive that many seem to have quickly forgotten about. 

That’s not to say I’d throw caution to the wind just yet. Ted reports to the market this Thursday. If there’s more bad news on trading (we’ve already had two profit warnings since February) the share price will likely continue its journey southwards for a while yet. Of course, any glimmer of recovery and the stock could soar.

Should the former be the case, I think this would only increase the likelihood of the company being taken back into private hands, possibly involving Kelvin himself. In the meantime, Ted starts the week valued at just 10 times earnings and yielding 5%. 

Woodford-inspired sell-off

Another small-cap that could turn out to be a great contrarian buy is doorstep lender Morses Club (LSE: MCL). Like Ted Baker, the market minnow’s shares have been on a downward trajectory for a while now, falling by a third in value since March. 

Why the big fall? At least some of this can surely be attributed to Neil Woodford’s decision to offload a proportion of his £13m holding in the company in an effort to raise cash to cope with the huge number of redemptions his flagship Equity Income fund will surely receive when it returns from suspension.

Such is the way the market works, a number of other investors are likely to have followed his lead in order to preserve their capital and not because there’s anything wrong with Morses per se. Indeed, this month’s update stated the company is trading in line with expectations and “continues to make strong progress” on the strategy of diversifying its product portfolio.

On a positive note, this surely gives prospective investors an ideal entry point. The business is now valued at nine times forecast FY20 earnings and has a price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.5 — far below the 1.0 threshold legendary growth investor Jim Slater said investors should be looking for. The balance sheet looks solid and the stock comes with a massive 6.8% yield.

With concerns the UK economy may slip into recession in the near future, and the consequences this could have for our finances, Morses Club could suddenly find itself in something of a purple patch. 

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Paul Summers has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Ted Baker. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

After it crashed 25%, should I buy this former stock market darling in my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Harvey Jones has a big hole in his Stocks and Shares ISA that he is keen to fill. Should he…

Read more »

happy senior couple using a laptop in their living room to look at their financial budgets
Investing Articles

How’s the dividend forecast looking for Legal & General shares in 2025 and beyond?

As a shareholder, I like to keep track of the potential dividend returns I could make from my Legal &…

Read more »

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Could buying this stock with a $7bn market cap be like investing in Nvidia in 2010?

Where might the next Nvidia-type stock be lurking in today's market? Our writer takes a look at one candidate with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »