Can the RBS share price ever return to 400p?

Royal Bank of Scotland plc’s (LON: RBS) recovery is virtually complete, but will shareholders ever see 400p again?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

RBS (LSE: RBS) seems to be one of the most hated stocks on the London market. No matter how impressive the company’s results, the path of least resistance for the shares always seems to be down. 

The bank’s latest results release is a great example. The group announced its best figures since the financial crisis and a special dividend on top of its regular distribution. However, rather than concentrating on the positives, the market latched onto management’s downbeat forward guidance, which suggested the bank will miss its long term profitability targets due to economic uncertainty. 

Underperformance

Following the post results decline, shares in RBS are now off 1% for the year. Year-to-date, shares in the bank are underperforming the FTSE 100 by around 10%, including dividends. 

Over the past five years, the stock has underperformed the index by around 14% per annum, and over the past decade, by nearly 20% per annum. Shares in RBS are currently trading at their lowest level in three years.

Looking at this performance, you might assume the bank’s outlook has deteriorated substantially over the past five years. But that’s just not the case. RBS is stronger today than it has been at any other point since the financial crisis. 

Indeed, since 2008, the bank has disposed of hundreds of billions of dollars of toxic assets, reinforced its balance sheet and consolidated around its core UK market. RBS’s core equity tier 1 capital ratio — a measure of bank balance sheet strength — was 16% of the end of June, several percentage points above its required minimum. 

The robust balance sheet and surging profits mean management has plenty of headroom to return cash to investors. The recently announced interim ordinary dividend of 2p and a special dividend of 12p is evidence of this. These two distributions represent £1.7bn being returned to shareholders in total. 

Stronger, but smaller

RBS is stronger today than it was 10 years ago, but it’s also smaller. The group’s tangible net asset value per share is 290p, down substantially from the pre-crisis peak. Profitable banks deserve to trade at, or slightly above, tangible book value, which implies shares in RBS are worth around 290p today, 45% above current levels. 

So, the RBS share price appears to be undervalued, but it’s unlikely it will trade back up to 400p anytime soon based on the current figures. That said, if the bank continues to return excess capital to investors via dividends, there’s a good chance shareholders could receive the difference between this 400p price target and the tangible book value in dividends.

The recently announced 14p total distribution is a big step towards this target. With that in mind, if you are looking for an FTSE 100 income stock to include in your portfolio today, it might be worth considering RBS as an investment. 

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

The flag of the United States of America flying in front of the Capitol building
Investing Articles

2 UK shares that could rise if Trump wins the Presidential election

These UK shares are among the FTSE 100's most popular stocks. And they could rise in value if Donald Trump…

Read more »

Closeup ruffled American flag representing US stocks and shares
Investing Articles

2 UK stocks that could rise if Harris wins the Presidential election

Royston Wild believes these UK stocks could receive a bump if Kalama Harris wins the Presidency, giving their share prices…

Read more »

Investing Articles

After a 96% plunge, is buying more Aston Martin shares throwing good money after bad?

Just two weeks after buying Aston Martin shares Harvey Jones found himself nursing a painful loss. Yet after recent news…

Read more »

Investing Articles

After crashing 45% in October, should I buy this FTSE 250 share for my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Roland Head explains why he’s tempted to add this risky FTSE 250 turnaround share to his Stocks and Shares ISA…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Could I use a stock market crash to turn £20k into half a mil in just over a decade?

A stock market crash might sound terrifying to some but it can also present a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to accumulate generational…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Recently released: October’s small-cap stock recommendation [PREMIUM PICKS]

We believe the UK small-cap market offers a myriad of opportunities across a wide range of different businesses and industries.

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s how a Stocks and Shares ISA and Lifetime ISA could supercharge my wealth!

Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) can help UK share investors take their earnings to the next level. And their importance is…

Read more »

A person holding onto a fan of twenty pound notes
Investing Articles

A high-yield dividend ETF and an investment trust to consider this November!

Investors wanting to boost their passive income could benefit from investigating these high-yield funds and trusts, says Royston Wild.

Read more »