Is the Glencore share price a buy or should I grab FTSE 100 faller Ferguson?

Do FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) fallers Glencore plc (LON:GLEN) and Ferguson plc (LON:FERG) deserve a buy rating, asks Roland Head?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Many cyclical stocks have fallen sharply over the last couple of months, as investors have taken a cautious view on global growth. Today, I’m going to look at two big fallers from the FTSE 100.

The first is mining and commodity trading group Glencore (LSE: GLEN). The group’s share price has fallen by 23% so far this year, leaving it lagging far behind rivals such as Rio Tinto (-7%) and BHP (+3%).

One reason for this is that Glencore has been hit by a US Department of Justice investigation into its operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But the group’s financial performance has remained strong. I’m not sure the stock deserves such a big discount to rivals.

Too cheap to ignore?

Glencore’s recent trading results certainly suggest to me that this business is firing on all cylinders. During the first half of the year, adjusted operating profit rose by 35% to $5,119m. The group’s funds from operations — a measure of cash generation — rose by 8%, from $5,201m to $5,625m.

Market conditions are fairly favourable for most major commodities, and the firm’s management appears to have been taking advantage of this. Production of copper rose by 12% to 1,063,100 tonnes during the third quarter. Nickel, zinc and coal also logged increases.

Analysts expect earnings to rise by 20% to $0.49 per share in 2018, providing generous earnings cover for the forecast dividend of $0.21 per share. These forecasts put the stock on a 2018 price/earnings ratio of 7.8, with a 5.4% dividend yield. In my view, that’s cheap enough to factor in the risks faced by the firm. I’d rate the shares as a buy at this level.

Should I be worried?

The share price of FTSE 100 plumbing and building supplies group Ferguson (LSE: FERG) has fallen by about 20% since the start of October. This sharp sell-off seems to have been caused by wider market woes rather than by problems at the company, which was previously known as Wolseley.

In its first-quarter trading statement today, Ferguson said that sales rose by 8.5% to $5,554m during the three months to 31 October. Trading profit — a measure of operating profit — rose by 9.9% to $432m.

The group’s business is mainly focused on the US market these days, which provides more than 80% of sales. Although it’s early in the year, at this stage chief executive John Martin expects the firm’s full-year results to meet expectations for earnings growth of 18%.

There’s no obvious reason for concern. But Ferguson shares are down by nearly 4% at the time of writing, after this morning’s figures. As a shareholder, should I be worried?

A cyclical peak?

I’ve been impressed with this firm’s ability to generate high returns in a competitive sector. During the year to 31 July, Ferguson generated a return on capital employed of 20%. A similar figure seems likely this year.

However, it’s worth remembering that this is a cyclical business. Recent news reports indicate that US construction spending may be flattening, or even falling. In such a scenario, Ferguson’s profits could peak, and the company could see a period of slower growth, or reduced earnings.

Faced with an uncertain outlook, I think Ferguson shares are probably priced about right at the moment, on 12 times forecast earnings, with a 3.2% yield. There are probably better opportunities elsewhere.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Roland Head owns shares of Ferguson. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Young Caucasian man making doubtful face at camera
Investing Articles

Surprise! This monopoly stock has taken over my Stocks and Shares ISA (again)

Our writer has a (nice) dilemma in his Stocks and Shares ISA portfolio after one incredible growth stock rocketed higher…

Read more »

Investing Articles

10.5% yield – but could the abrdn share price get even cheaper?

Christopher Ruane sees some things to like about the current abrdn share price. But will that be enough to overcome…

Read more »

Investing Articles

£9,000 to invest? These 3 high-yield shares could deliver a £657 annual passive income

The high yields on these dividend shares sail sit well above the FTSE 100 average of 3.6%. Here's why I…

Read more »

Surprised Black girl holding teddy bear toy on Christmas
Investing Articles

I’ve got £2k and I’m on the hunt for cheap shares to buy in December

Harvey Jones finally has some cash in his trading account and is hunting for cheap shares to buy next month.…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Down 25% with a 4.32% yield and P/E of 8.6! Is this my best second income stock or worst?

Harvey Jones bought GSK shares hoping to bag a solid second income stream while nailing down steady share price growth…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s how the Legal & General dividend yield could ultimately hit 15%!

The Legal & General dividend yield is already among the best of any FTSE 100 share. Christopher Ruane explores some…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is December a good time for me to buy UK shares?

This writer is weighing up which shares to buy for his portfolio next month, and one household name from the…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is it time to dump my Lloyds shares and never look back?

Harvey Jones was chuffed with his Lloyds shares but recent events have made him rethink his entire decision to go…

Read more »