Why I believe time is running out to buy this FTSE 100 dividend growth stock

Rupert Hargreaves looks at what he believes is one of the best income stocks in the FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) and explains why he’d keep buying.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

When it comes to FTSE 100 dividend stocks, there’s one company that stands head and shoulders above the rest. 

Distributor DCC (LSE: DCC) might not be the most exciting business in the index, but over the past decade, its growth has left other companies trailing in the dust.

However, I think time could be running out for investors to buy into this growth story and today, I’m looking at why.

Growth superstar 

DCC follows a buy-and-build strategy. Starting small, the business has grown steadily since its founding in 1976, buying up smaller distribution firms in different industries to add to its empire. When bolted on to the larger DCC group, these acquisitions have benefited from economies of scale. 

This strategy has helped the company grow earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% over the past five years. Meanwhile, the group’s per share dividend to investors has grown at a CAGR of 11% since 2013. 

Today, the firm unveiled further growth for the six months to the end of September. For the period, adjusted operating profit jumped 15.9% year-on-year, helping boost adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 12.1% to 107.1p. Off the back of these results, management has hiked DCC’s interim dividend payout by 10%, to just under 45p per share (analysts expect a full-year dividend yield of 2.2%).

And I see no reason why this trend cannot continue. Historically, the company has used a mix of both cash from operations and debt to fund deals. Free cash flow from operations was around £180m for the last financial year (although, according to today’s numbers, operating cash flow doubled in the first half of 2018) and, after stripping out cash, DCC’s balance sheet is still relatively clean, with a net-debt-to-equity ratio of just 39%.

On special offer

I believe DCC is one of the FTSE 100’s best businesses, with a long runway for growth ahead of it. 

However, amid the recent market volatility, investors have rushed to dump the stock. Today, it’s trading around 22% (excluding dividends) below its all-time high printed in January. The shares have declined 17% in the past two months alone. 

These declines mean that the stock is now trading at a forward P/E of 17.2, that’s compared to the five-year average of 29.5!

In my opinion, Brexit uncertainty, coupled with volatility in global markets, are responsible for this decline. But I reckon it’s only a matter of time before investors return to the stock, pushing the valuation back to the five-year average. 

You see, over the past few years, DCC has been expanding aggressively in markets around the world (particularly in the highly-defensive fuel trading and distribution industry), and the company is no longer reliant on the UK. Management plans to continue this global expansion drive, which should soften the blow from any negative Brexit impact. 

The bottom line

As DCC pushes ahead with its expansion plans and showcases its global strengths, I think it’s only a matter of time before investors return to the company. So, it looks to me right now that shares in DCC are currently on sale, but it might not be long before the market calls time on the offer.

Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

British flag, Big Ben, Houses of Parliament and British flag composition
Investing Articles

Scottish Mortgage has made a fortune on SpaceX and Tesla! Here are 5 UK stocks it owns

This FTSE 100 investment trust holds 101 growth stocks from around the globe, but only five from the UK. Which…

Read more »

Businessman hand stacking up arrow on wooden block cubes
Investing Articles

I think UK investors are missing out on this overlooked Dow Jones stock

Jon Smith flags a US stock in the Dow Jones index that has a price-to-earnings ratio over half the average,…

Read more »

Shot of an young mixed-race woman using her cellphone while out cycling through the city
Investing For Beginners

2 FTSE 100 shares that could outperform this year regardless of geopolitics

Jon Smith notes the volatile market but explains how to pick FTSE 100 shares that can be fairly insulated to…

Read more »

Man writing 'now' having crossed out 'later', 'tomorrow' and 'next week'
Investing Articles

With share prices rising, is now the time to hold off buying stocks?

Despite share prices rising, Stephen Wright thinks there are still opportunities for investors looking for stocks to consider buying.

Read more »

Smartly dressed middle-aged black gentleman working at his desk
Investing Articles

6% dividend yields and a P/E below 6! Here’s a FTSE 250 bargain share to consider

I love UK shares with low earnings multiples and high dividend yields. So I'm considering buying this cheap-as-chips FTSE 250…

Read more »

A graph made of neon tubes in a room
Investing Articles

Dividends up 36% in 3 years! No wonder BAE Systems is a popular SIPP stock

Mark Hartley takes a closer look at the types of stocks that are popular in a SIPP, from mega-cap UK…

Read more »

Mature black woman at home texting on her cell phone while sitting on the couch
Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in Rolls-Royce shares at the start of the year is now worth…

Rolls-Royce shares have been the darling of the UK stock market in recent years but how have they fared in…

Read more »

Happy couple showing relief at news
Investing Articles

How to turn £10 a day in a Stocks & Shares ISA into £23,857 of passive income!

Looking for ways to make a sustained passive income? Royston Wild explains how the Stocks and Shares ISA could help…

Read more »