Is the BAE share price a FTSE 100 bargain or a value trap?

Could BAE Systems plc (LON: BA) be the best buy in the FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE: UKX)?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Over the past five years, shares in defence contractor BAE Systems (LSE: BA) have more than doubled the return of the broader FTSE 100, excluding dividends.

However, compared with international peers such as General Dynamics and Boeing, BAE has struggled. Indeed since 2013, shares in BAE have underperformed those of General Dynamics by 100%, excluding dividends, and Boeing by 200%.

But with defence spending on the up around the world, could BAE’s fortunes finally be about to change?

Catching up with the pack

BAE’s underperformance, compared to its international peers, is staggering. Many factors have contributed to the company’s struggles, but the primary reason is inefficiency. BAE just isn’t as efficient as its larger US peers. 

For example, last year General Dynamics, which operates in reasonably similar areas to its British peer, achieve the return on capital employed — a key measure of profitability for every £1 invested — of 19%. Meanwhile, BAE’s ROCE was just 9% for 2017.

Still, despite the lack of profitability, BAE continues to pick up orders for its products from around the world. In a trading statement issued before the company’s AGM last week, the group said it had opportunities to win orders during the second half of 2018 in the US, to help build amphibious combat vehicles, and in Australia to help build warships. There’s also progress being made in negotiations with Saudi Arabia over its intention to buy 48 Typhoon fighter jets.

Based on these prospects, management believes that earnings will be “in line” with 2017 this year. This suggests a figure of 42.1p has put forward in the pre-AGM release, slightly below City forecasts.

What does the future hold? 

BAE’s lack of growth is concerning. At a time when governments around the world are ramping up military spending, BAE should be capitalising on its position in the market to drive earnings and revenue growth. 

Over the next two years, sales at General Dynamics are expected to grow by nearly $9bn, up 30% from 2017’s $31bn. Earnings per share are also set to rise by 30% over the same period. If BAE hits revenue growth targets, over the same period the company is projected to grow sales by 5%.

Considering the above, it’s difficult to think of BAE as a bargain. Shares in the company currently trade at a forward P/E of 13.9, which looks about right for a low-growth business. At the same time, the shares only support a dividend yield of 3.7% and this is unlikely to grow much further in the years ahead as earnings remain flat.

That being said, BAE doesn’t look to be much of a value trap either. Earnings are unlikely to fall dramatically if it continues to win contracts. And the dividend yield is well covered by earnings per share, so it’s unlikely investors will have to suffer a payout cut.

With this being the case, I am struggling to arrive at a conclusion either way for the stock. If it’s income and growth you are after, there’s certainly better buys out there, although my Foolish peer Harvey Jones seems to disagree

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »

Silhouette of a bull standing on top of a landscape with the sun setting behind it
Investing Articles

Is the S&P 500 going to 10,000 by 2030? This expert thinks so

One stock market strategist sees animal spirits taking hold and driving the S&P 500 index even higher by the end…

Read more »

Investing Articles

I’m expecting my Phoenix Group shares to give me a total return of 25% in 2025!

Phoenix Group shares have had a difficult few months but that doesn't worry Harvey Jones. He loves their 10%+ yield…

Read more »

Hand of person putting wood cube block with word VALUE on wooden table
Investing Articles

14.5bn reasons why I think the Legal & General share price is at least 11% undervalued

According to our writer, the Legal & General share price doesn’t appear to reflect the underlying profitability of the business. 

Read more »