Why I’d buy and hold dividend stocks GlaxoSmithKline plc & Taylor Wimpey plc

GlaxoSmithKline plc (LON: GSK) and Taylor Wimpey plc (LON: TW) could be among the best dividend payers of the next decade.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

This week’s FTSE 100 sell-off has wiped out all of the previous year’s gains, dropping the UK’s top index way down from a 12-month peak of a shade under 7,800 points.

That’s great news for folks who are still planning several more decades of investing, because it’s turned some truly great stocks into short-term bargains.

GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) shares had already been falling, losing more than 15% over the past 12 months — and they’re even down 10% over five years. Glaxo famously hit the double trouble of the expiry of some key patents coupled with increasing generic competition a few years ago, and has been revamping its development pipeline ever since.

And what’s disappointed investors is that the return to earnings growth looks like it might be short-lived, with the rises of the past two years predicted to partially reverse in 2018.

Slow recovery

With competitors having effectively had a five-year head start while Glaxo set about rebuilding itself, getting back into a commanding position is proving trickier than expected. The dividend for which the company is famous has been pegged for four years in a row, and with earnings not picking up as hoped, it’s surely coming under pressure with many fearing a cut.

Those worries are real, but I believe they are already factored into the share price, and then some. The forecast 6.1% yield for 2018 would be covered 1.35 times by earnings, so if there is a cut I’d expect it to be only a small one.

And full-year results this week showed an 11% EPS increase for 2017, which is ahead of expectations, after revenue rose 8%. That puts the shares on a trailing P/E of under 12, and I think that’s too cheap — especially considering the long-term cash-generating prospects for the company.

What slump?

Another I see as unfairly undervalued is housebuilder Taylor Wimpey (LSE: TW), whose shares dipped sharply this week having stagnated over the past two years.

Some of that is perhaps understandable after the price more than doubled in the last five years, even with that recent poor performance, and many investors will have been taking profits from shares they consider fully valued.

Brexit-led fears for the property market are there too, though I’ve gone on about how the UK’s chronic housing shortage is not going to disappear the second we leave the EU. I won’t bore you further on that, but instead I’ll turn to the numbers.

Another great year

January’s year-end update from Taylor Wimpey painted a very attractive picture in my eyes, as chief executive Pete Redfern said: “Despite wider macroeconomic uncertainty, housing market fundamentals remain solid and our trading performance has been good.

Completions during the year rose by 5% to 14,541 (including joint ventures), with average selling prices up 4% to £264,000. That includes 2,809 ‘affordable homes’ in the mix.

The firm ended 2017 with an order book valued at £1.68bn, which was slightly down on 2016, but that’s apparently partly due to an increased rate of production.

Does that sound to you like a company that’s struggling, whose anticipated dividend yield of 7.2% looks under threat, or whose shares deserve to be on a low forward P/E of just 9.5 (dropping as low as 8.8 by 2019)?

No, it doesn’t sound like that to me either, and I reckon we’re seeing another great dividend stock made even cheaper by irrational fears.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Alan Oscroft has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended GlaxoSmithKline. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

After it crashed 25%, should I buy this former stock market darling in my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Harvey Jones has a big hole in his Stocks and Shares ISA that he is keen to fill. Should he…

Read more »

happy senior couple using a laptop in their living room to look at their financial budgets
Investing Articles

How’s the dividend forecast looking for Legal & General shares in 2025 and beyond?

As a shareholder, I like to keep track of the potential dividend returns I could make from my Legal &…

Read more »

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Could buying this stock with a $7bn market cap be like investing in Nvidia in 2010?

Where might the next Nvidia-type stock be lurking in today's market? Our writer takes a look at one candidate with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »