Should I pile into Motif Bio plc, up 35% today?

Successful Phase 3 trials at Motif Bio plc (LON: MTFB) could signal good times ahead.

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Good news hit the wires this morning from Motif Bio (LSE: MTFB), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company aiming to develop novel antibiotics. The market likes it and the shares are around 36% higher as I write.

The excitement surrounds details of a positive topline result from a global Phase 3 clinical trial called REVIVE-2, which is focused on the firm’s investigational drug candidate iclaprim for patients with Acute Bacterial Skin and Skin Structure Infections (ABSSSI). 

A new drug is born

Chief executive Graham Lumsden tells us that today’s positive results mean the company has completed the two required Phase 3 trials in ABSSSI necessary to submit a new drug application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which Motif Bio plans to do by the end of the first quarter of 2018.

According to medical experts, ABSSSI is a serious infection and every year around 3.6m people in the US are hospitalised with it for several days. The problem with existing treatments is that they tend to be toxic to the kidneys and that’s bad because around 26% of those suffering with ABSSSI also have kidney disease. Happily, during the trial, kidney toxicity was not observed with iclaprim.

The hope now is that Iclaprim may prove to be “an important option for the growing population of patients with ABSSSI and kidney disease who need a safe and effective antibiotic targeting Gram-positive bacteria, including MRSA.” Meanwhile, from an investing point of view, the outcome of the trial means that Iclaprim now has value, which Motif Bio may be able to commercialise down the road.

Will the cash roll in?

Perhaps Iclaprim will go on to become a blockbusting best-seller. If so, it could end up delivering much-needed incoming cash flow to the company’s coffers. We saw with the recent interim results that Motif Bio has no income and spent more than $28m on operations during the first half of the year – early-stage drug development is an expensive activity. Investors are keeping the firm solvent, and a placing in June brought in just under $24m. But even then, the cash sitting on the balance sheet was only around $29m and the cash-burning agenda for operations marches on.

Of course, Motif Bio isn’t the only drug-development company with precarious finances, and we investors have to make judgements in such cases that balance the financial risks of owning the shares against the upside potential in a firm’s story. One consequence of this push-pull scenario in Motif Bio’s case is that the share price seems to fly up and down on news announcements depending on their tone. So, although the long-term story is full of potential, maybe it’s best to buy-in on down days rather than up days like today.  

The news today takes it closer to earning income, but the firm’s market capitalisation running close to £129m strikes me as hefty for a company with everything yet to prove. This stock could be a millionaire-maker or it could, yet, send you to the poorhouse, so I remain cautious.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Kevin Godbold has no position in Motif Bio. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing For Beginners

Up 31% in a month, could this FTSE 250 stock be getting bought out?

Jon Smith takes a look at speculation that's pushing the share price of a FTSE 250 share higher and considers…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s how I’d follow Warren Buffett to start building passive income in 2025

Ben McPoland highlights one FTSE 250 firm with a strong competitive edge that he thinks can continue rewarding investors with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Burberry shares: undervalued FTSE gems that are ready to rocket?

Burberry shares soared at the beginning of the week as the takeover rumour mill went into overdrive. Is Paul Summers…

Read more »

US Stock

Here are the latest share price forecasts for S&P 500 giant Amazon

Amazon has generated monster gains for investors over the last decade. And Wall Street analysts believe the S&P 500 stock…

Read more »

Man writing 'now' having crossed out 'later', 'tomorrow' and 'next week'
Investing Articles

2 high-yield FTSE 250 shares I’d buy today — and 1 that I’d avoid

UK markets have felt some volatility after last week’s Budget and the FTSE 250 was no stranger to it. Our…

Read more »

Investing Articles

3 reasons the Rolls-Royce share price could soar over the next decade

Sustainable aviation fuel, narrow-body aircraft, and small nuclear reactors could all keep the Rolls-Royce share price climbing over the next…

Read more »

British flag, Big Ben, Houses of Parliament and British flag composition
Investing Articles

Here’s how much income I’d get if I invested my entire £20k ISA in cheap BT shares

BT shares are on the up but still cheap, while the FTSE 100 telecoms stock offers a good yield too.…

Read more »

Investing Articles

2 FTSE dividend shares yielding more than 6% with P/Es of less than 9!

Harvey Jones picks out two brilliant FTSE 100 dividend shares that yield more than 6% but are selling at strangely…

Read more »