Shares in Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) were up 8% on Monday (23 June) as the company finally launched its autonomous vehicle network. And it’s fair to say, it’s been a long time coming.
Elon Musk first announced the firm’s robotaxi ambitions on 20 July 2016. The timeline has changed more times than the Sugarbabes, but those who stayed the course have done very well.
True believers
Since the initial announcement, the Tesla shares price is up around 2,250%. That’s enough to turn a £10,000 investment into £235,276 before adjusting for exchange rates.
During that time, Musk has – by his own admission – been overly optimistic about when the firm might launch its robotaxi network. But shareholders might not care about that very much.
A 2,250% return is obviously well beyond what either the S&P 500 or the FTSE 100 has returned over the same time. And there’s an important lesson here for investors.
If the future returns are large enough, it can be worth waiting for quite a long time. In fact, this is something Tesla shareholders might want to keep in mind at the moment.
Where are we now?
There are a few bridges still to cross with Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions. The most obvious is that they still come with a human in the front passenger seat who can intervene.
I actually quite like this, but it’s something that Waymo – the firm’s main rival – has already managed to move past. So there’s still a gap to be closed at least in that regard.
The other obvious limitation is that Tesla’s robotaxis are confined to a relatively narrow area. They also don’t operate at night, near airports, or in bad weather.
Given one of the big advantages of Tesla’s approach is its ability to scale, it’s fair to say there’s still some way to go. So despite a big step forward, investors still have to be patient.
Robotaxis or bust
I’m not a Tesla shareholder. But I’ve taken the view for some time that the question of whether or not the stock was overvalued came down to the firm’s autonomous vehicle ambitions.
There is – as far as I can tell – no way to justify the firm’s market value just by focusing on car sales. And this has been the case for some time.
That means the long-term viability of Tesla shares as an investment comes down to its robotaxi network. In fact, this is something else Musk has stated in the past.
The latest developments on this front are clearly very positive. So it’s no surprise – and I don’t think it’s unreasonable – to see the stock moving higher as a result.
Is it too late to buy shares?
Despite climbing 8%, the Tesla share price is still 7% down since the start of the year. But despite weak car sales, the firm is arguably in a stronger overall position than it was in January.
That means investors might want to take a closer look at the stock. It’s not a finished product yet, but the company has made a big step towards its end goal.
