Earlier this year, life looked sweet for global investors. On 3 March, the FTSE 100 hit an all-time high of 8,908.82 points. A couple of weeks earlier, the US S&P 500 index hit its record peak of 6,147.43 points on 19 February. Alas, both indexes now stand well below these historic highs, with stock-market volatility surging.
April upset
In T.S. Eliot’s poem The Waste Land, the great English writer opens with, “April is the cruellest month”. So it has proved in 2025, as share prices plunged worldwide. This brief but brutal stock-market crash was triggered by President Trump’s decision to impose the highest tariffs (taxes) on US imports since the early 1930s.
Economists and market pundits fear that a Trump trade war could raise consumer prices, lift US inflation, increase unemployment, reduce business investment, keep interest rates higher for longer, and ultimately plunge the US into recession. Hence the sudden and swift collapse in share prices. Nobody wants a US-led global slowdown, right?
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Recession-resistant shares?
Of course, in full-blown global recessions, few companies’ earnings are safe from downturns. In the hardest times, even defensive stocks take a beating. Then again, a few established businesses have decades-long histories of emerging unscathed — or even stronger — from economic downturns. Here is one of my FTSE 100 favourites to own when times get tough.
Unilever
For me, multinational Unilever (LSE: ULVR) might be one company set to weather the next recession. (Of course, a downturn is coming, we simply just don’t know when.)
This Anglo-Dutch success story is a global Goliath in the sale of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). Unilever owns so many well-known brands that over 3.4bn people worldwide use its products every day. Indeed, I count several Unilever products on my bathroom and kitchen shelves.
Despite Unilever’s storied history — dating back to 1929, the start of the Great Depression — and worldwide reach, its shares don’t look overpriced to me. On Thursday, 17 April, this stock closed at 4,806p, 4.5% below the 52-week high of 5,034p set on 9 September 2024. This values this British business at £120.3bn — and I suspect that big might be beautiful during market meltdowns.
Unilever shares offer a dividend yield of 3.1% a year. This is below the FTSE 100’s cash yield of 3.5% a year, but still a decent income stream. That said, growth in Unilever’s sales, earnings, and dividend has weakened since 2019. Indeed, the firm’s dividend for 2024 was €1.73 (148p), the same as in 2023 and 2020.
For the record, my wife and I already own Unilever shares in our family portfolio. We paid 4,122.2p a share for our stake, which has since appreciated in value by 16.6% (excluding reinvested cash dividends).
I rate Unilever for its extensive portfolio of well-known brands in beauty and well-being, personal care, home care, nutrition, and ice cream. People will still keep eating comfort food and buying and using soap, shampoo, deodorant, laundry detergent, and cleaning products even during the worst downturns. That’s why I see Unilever as a candidate for a recession-resistant business.
Of course, I could be wrong. In sustained periods of stress, group revenues, earnings, and cash flow are likely to be hit. But we have no intention of selling this FTSE 100 stock at current price levels!
