2025’s been tough for the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) share price so far. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant’s seen almost a quarter of its market-cap wiped out as the US unleashed its global tariff policies. And while investor nerves have seemingly cooled, all the impressive gains in the last quarter of 2024 have still been wiped out.
Obviously, that’s frustrating for any investor who bought shares at the start of 2025. But could the recent volatility just be a small speedbump before the stock continues its impressive long-term upward trajectory? And if so, how much money could investors make over the next 12 months?
Outlook remains positive
Despite the rise of pessimism throughout the stock market right now, the analyst consensus surrounding Amazon and its share price is pretty clear. Of the 73 analysts following this business, 69 either rate the stock a Buy or an Outperform. And of the 67 that have issued a share price projection for April 2026, the average consensus predicts the stock could rise to as high as $260 per share.
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Comparing this price target to where the stock currently trades suggests a potential 45% gain from current levels. At 45%, the potential capital gains could transform a £1,000 investment today into roughly £1,450 over the next 12 months. And even for those who bought at the start of January, that’s still a potential 10% gain, suggesting that holding on through the storm is likely a prudent move.
So is it a no-brainer buy?
Balancing risk with reward
If everything goes according to plan, analysts expect to see revenue climb 9.1% and earnings 13.6%, thanks to a bit of margin expansion. The company does have a reputation for beating expectations. However, 2025 also poses some significant headwinds that might interrupt the firm’s winning streak.
Its online marketplace is facing fiercer competition from the likes of Walmart and Costco. At the same time, in the cloud computing business, tariffs on metals such as aluminium and steel could drive up infrastructure costs considerably, even with computer chips receiving an exemption. And it’s unclear how much of these added expenditures can be passed onto customers.
At the same time, there are also anti-trust concerns to take into consideration. As one of the largest businesses in the world, regulatory scrutiny’s becoming more intense, especially in international markets like Europe.
The bottom line
With the data centre and artificial intelligence (AI) compute markets expanding at an exceptional pace, Amazon appears to be perfectly positioned to thrive in the long run. But whether it can successfully navigate a potentially weaker economic environment in the short term without disruption remains to be seen.
Overall, I remain cautiously optimistic and think other investors may want to dig deeper to see whether the reward is enough to offset the risk for their portfolios.
