With the Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) share price getting slashed in half these last few months, investors are understandably getting spooked. Yet, with seemingly impressive technologies and the start of the robotaxi rollout kicking off later this year, can the stock bounce back?
Here are the latest analyst forecasts.
Tesla on track for growth
Despite fear, uncertainty, and doubt circulating through the headlines, analyst projections for this business remain relatively positive. In particular, sales and earnings are expected to jump significantly in 2026 following the launch of its Robotaxi and Optimus robots.
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2025’s certainly off to a weaker start with lower-than-expected vehicle deliveries. However, it’s still possible CEO Elon Musk will deliver on his January promise of a return to growth later this year. After all, the firm’s entire vehicle line-up is in the process of being revamped.
The new Model Y SUV has just started leaving the factories, with the Model S and X also getting a long-awaited refresh. At the same time, the next-generation Tesla Roadster is also expected to make a debut later this year. And to top things off, the company’s also expected to unveil its Model Q by June – Tesla’s first low-cost EV with an estimated price tag of $30,000.
Subsequently, analysts are expecting sales and earnings per share for 2025 to land at $107.4bn and $2.62 respectively. Then, in 2026, revenue could reach 19% higher at £128bn, with a 32% surge in profits per share to $3.48. And looking at the average 12-month share price projections, the Tesla share price could be on track to reach around $320 by this time next year.
A good stock to buy?
As a long-term investor, I’m constantly looking for opportunities to snap up great companies at a great price. So when a leading business like Tesla suddenly gets a nearly 50% haircut, I’m definitely paying attention. However, even with this price crash, the stock’s far from cheap.
The most optimistic 2026 earnings per share forecast for Tesla is $5.52. A lot has to go right for the firm to deliver on this figure. But even if it does, that still puts the forward price-to-earnings ratio at a demanding 51. That’s more than double the S&P 500, highlighting just how lofty investor expectations for this business have become.
What’s more, these projections are being made before Tesla reports its first-quarter results for 2025. Based on its weak vehicle deliveries during the period, it’s possible that analysts may re-evaluate and adjust expectations for 2026, making today’s valuation even more expensive.
Of course, paying a premium is often the cost of admission for investing in a top-notch stock. However, the biggest concern I have surrounding Tesla is the state of competition.
For years, Tesla has enjoyed next-to-no competition within the electric vehicle (EV) space. That’s changed drastically in recent years. And now Chinese rival BYD has officially taken the lead with higher annual revenues in 2024, expanding its estimated market share to 15.7% versus Tesla’s 15.3%.
A big part of BYD’s success has been its more affordable EV offerings. So if Tesla’s Model Q meets expectations and is released on time, the company could retake the lead in the future. But that’s far from guaranteed. As such, despite the promising upcoming technology, I’m staying on the sidelines for now.
