Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares have wobbled in 2025 in the great Nasdaq sell-off, and they are down 12% year to date at the time of writing (21 March).
The company has just concluded its GPU Technology Conference (GTC) in San Jose, California. It’s an annual event that attracts the big players in the artificial intelligence (AI) game.
Nvidia’s new-generation Blackwell Ultra chip is the key technology event, with next-generation Rubin chips advancing through the pipeline. We heard of even more powerful AI workstations, moves into robotics, and there was a fair bit of starry-eyed dreaming too.
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But the market reaction was lukewarm. Possibly because there were few real surprises, with chip rollout schedules leaked well before the event.
Broker upgrades
If investors weren’t too excited by the big AI get-together, analysts seem more enthused.
Jefferies restated its Buy recommendation on the strength of the conference, with a price target of $185. That’s an expected gain of more than 55% on the current price. Broker views can often look mainly at the short term. But Jefferies is peering further ahead, saying “Rubin will only mark an incremental upgrade in 2026, with Rubin Ultra expected to be the most significant leap forward to come in 2027“.
In the same week, UBS reiterated its own $185 target for the Nvidia share price. JP Morgan followed with a more modest goal of $170, though that still implies a gain of more than 40%.
The range of price forecasts reaches as high as $220, with Bank of America repeating its $200 prediction as recently as 12 March. Even at the low end, the most bearish is still $125. Even the biggest pessimist still sees gains, and that can’t be bad.
The real fundies
This is all encouraging. But I always urge caution regarding broker targets. They can sometimes change direction faster than a flag on a windy day. And even though we see some far-sightedness, the short-term still often dominates Wall Street.
They’re still useful, as we should make the most of all stock market opinions to help us form our thinking. And at the end of the day, that can help us make our own decisions as smarter investors.
Longer-term fundamental forecasts can be more telling. And the outlook for Nvidia based on those out to 2028 is also bullish.
They expect Nvidia’s earnings per share (EPS) to grow 47% this year, and by 120% between the year just ended, January 2025, and January 2028. If they’re close to the mark, that could drop the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as low as 18 by 2028.
Highly competitive
The main threat I see is rising competition. And restrictions on the export of technology to China can only give added impetus in my mind. Look how China is overhauling the US lead in electric vehicle technology. And homegrown competition from the likes of Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, and others might not be far behind.
Despite the uncertainties, I really don’t see Nvidia shares as overpriced today. I think anyone who’s bullish on AI could do well to consider the stock.
