All things considered, the FTSE 250 has had a good year (it’s up 7.6%). But some of its members have done far better, demonstrating that stock picking has the potential to be very lucrative for those willing to take on more risk.
Today, I’m touching on two mid-caps whose share prices have more than doubled in 2024 to very little fanfare. Are they buys for me?
Tasty gain
Convenience food manufacturer Greencore (LSE: GNC) isn’t the sort of stock to get the blood pumping. That is, until one checks its recent performance. As I type (13 December), the Dublin-based business has seen its share price rise by 122% in 2024 alone.
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This appears to be down to a good, old-fashioned trading recovery. Helped by an earlier decision to exit low-margin contracts, the £1bn-cap announced a 36.1% jump in annual pre-tax profit to £61.5m in the 52 weeks to 27 September.
Such a good run of form has also allowed Greencore — which supplies supermarkets and convenience stores with sandwiches and salads — to lower its debt, initiate share buybacks and reinstate dividends. Those holding the stock on 9 January will be entitled to a 2p per share payout.
Will this purple patch continue?
Despite additional labour costs as a result of October’s UK Budget, management seems bullish on the outlook for earnings. Adjusted FY25 operating profit is already predicted to be within the top half of analyst expectations (which are £98.1m-£107.1m).
Then again, no investment is risk-free. Considering how many office staff are likely to buy what it produces, anything that might interfere with getting to work strikes me as a potential obstacle. Think extended periods of poor weather, transport issues or, yes, another global pandemic. The enduring popularity of working from home is something to bear in mind too.
At nearly 16 times earnings, the valuation is also looking a bit rich for me. I wonder what might happen when those profit upgrades stop coming. With this in mind, I’m not desperate to open a position today.
Precious metal boom
Another FTSE 250 stock that’s delivered the goods this year has been Hochschild Mining (LSE: HOC). Lagging Greencore only slightly, its share price has jumped 115% in 2024. As well as being a mighty-fine result for its owners, this also shows that big winners can come from any sector.
Hochschild’s purple patch is largely the result of soaring precious metal prices. Both gold and silver have been on excellent form as investors have looked for safe havens following a raft of elections and conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.
Conveniently, the £1.2bn cap has also managed to bring its Mara Rosa mine in Brazil into commercial production at exactly the right time.
Dirt cheap
Trading on a forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just six, one could say that Hochschild shares still look dirt cheap, especially if prices keep rising.
However, we know that mining is difficult, unpredictable work and the company doesn’t have any say in assigning value to what it digs up. There hasn’t been a dividend since September 2022 either. So there probably won’t be any compensation for investors if the shares give up some of their gains next year.
With so much out of its control, I’m happy to sit on the sidelines.
