Of the so-called Magnificent Seven artificial intelligence (AI) leaders in the US, the Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) share price is the only one that hasn’t really gone anywhere in the past two years.
It’s gained just 8%, and is still well down from its 2021 peak. At the other end of the scale, Nvidia is up 1,000% in two years.
Where next?
Where might Tesla stock go next? I’m writing this on the day of the big robotaxi event.
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Some industry watchers think it could mark a new turnaround for the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer. Others don’t think it’ll make much difference to bottom-line cash flow. At least, not yet.
No matter how good a Tesla taxi might be, it would take time to get the necessary authorisations in place, and then ramp up production.
And that’s while demand for AI chips is outstripping supply, which looks like a bottleneck.
Will the surge keep surging?
It also comes at a time when some analysts are quesitioning the strength of the AI surge. How much more cash can the big companies plough into it before they can make enough profit to justify the cost?
I do wonder how much FOMO (fear of missing out) might be helping to drive everyone at top gear.
Other companies are getting in on the act too. General Motors is set to start its next phase of driverless taxi testing in California, after an accident brought it to a halt a year ago.
Industry experts
One thing seems clear to me. We won’t go from taxi launch today to the streets being swarmed with them tomorrow.
And where there’s uncertainty in the industry itself, there’s masses of it among the investment experts.
According to MarketWatch, analysts put a median price target of $227 on Tesla right now. Wait… the current price is higher than that, at $241!
The range of individual targets ranges from a healthier $400, down to a shockingly low $38. Yes, there’s an analyst out there who thinks the Tesla share price needs to gain 66% to reach fair value, and there’s one who sees an 84% fall on the way.
Oh, and I’ve left out Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest. In June, she put a $2,600 price target on Tesla by 2029. I think it’s fair to say the investment community is split over her judgment.
My take
I must make it clear that I’d never make an investment decision based on an analyst price target. Or on any forecasts, at least not on their own.
But over the years, I’ve found it definitely helps to listen to all opinions before making up my own mind. And that’s especially true when it’s a tricky one like this.
And judging by what I see here, the experts are so wildly apart they seem to have no more clue than I do.
I guess I’ll wait, see where the robotaxi thing goes, and keep my mind focused on trying to work out a rational long-term valuation.
