How will FTSE shares react to today’s Fed rate cut decision in the US?

Today could see the first US interest rate cut in over four years. Mark David Hartley considers how this could affect local FTSE shares.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

The flag of the United States of America flying in front of the Capitol building

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

UK and US markets are intricately linked, with many British-listed businesses deriving much of their revenue from America. So when the economy shifts across the pond, FTSE shares react. 

The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates today (18 September) for the first time in over four years. The benchmark stands at its highest in 23 years following a swathe of hikes to calm pandemic inflation.

interest rates
Created on TradingView.com

Of course, there may be no cut at all, but a meeting is under way to decide on whether the cut will be a quarter or half a percentage point. Depending on what the decision is, it could affect markets differently. A large cut could optimise the economic recovery — but it could also reignite inflation, reversing all of the last four years’ work.

So what effect could all of this have on the UK market?

Ups and downs

The overall goal is to reduce costs and boost employment, therefore reviving the economy. Any boost in the US would likely help our local market improve too.

However, while that’s an ideal outcome, it would be wise to prepare for some volatility.

Defensive shares can provide cushioning during uncertain economic times as they don’t react too much to market changes. Adding a few to a portfolio helps to keep the ship at an even keel when seas get rough.

A defensive defence share

One of my favourite defensive shares is BAE Systems (LSE: BAE). As the largest defence contractor in Europe, it develops and manufactures aerospace and information security services to government and military agencies.

It doesn’t have exceptional growth potential or a high dividend yield. But where it lacks in the promise of returns, it makes up for in stability. It has a clean balance sheet, steadily increasing revenue and around £1.2bn in annual cash flow. 

Looking at its chart, we can see that the share price has been quite stable. It didn’t suffer heavy losses during the 2008 financial crisis or Covid in 2020. Many other stocks fell sharply during these periods. Historically, long-term growth has been good, delivering annualised returns of 9.3% over the past 20 years.

It has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.3, slightly below the industry average. Analysts forecast price growth of 13% on average over the coming 12 months.

Considerations

BAE has been racking up quite a bit of debt lately. In the first quarter of the year, its debt-to-equity ratio almost doubled to 78%. If this gets too close to 100% it may need to prioritise debt reduction, which could limit funds available for growing the business.

It could also present a moral dilemma for some. As a contractor, BAE’s operations rely largely on government defence spending. It’s a necessary evil but ideally, it would be better if we didn’t need it all. The goal is to find a resolution to global conflicts and reduce defence spending. Naturally, this could lead to slower growth for the company.

Price stability

Whatever the outcome of today’s Fed decision, it can’t hurt to safeguard a portfolio against volatile markets. I believe stable, slow-growing defensive shares are a potentially great way to achieve this.

To maintain stability, I keep about 20% of my portfolio in defensive stocks. Others to consider on the FTSE 100 include AstraZeneca, GSK and Unilever.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Mark Hartley has positions in BAE Systems, GSK, and Unilever. The Motley Fool UK has recommended AstraZeneca Plc, BAE Systems, GSK, and Unilever. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on US Stock

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Could buying this stock with a $7bn market cap be like investing in Nvidia in 2010?

Where might the next Nvidia-type stock be lurking in today's market? Our writer takes a look at one candidate with…

Read more »

Silhouette of a bull standing on top of a landscape with the sun setting behind it
Investing Articles

Is the S&P 500 going to 10,000 by 2030? This expert thinks so

One stock market strategist sees animal spirits taking hold and driving the S&P 500 index even higher by the end…

Read more »

US Stock

The Nvidia share price falls! Here’s what I think happens next for the S&P 500

Jon Smith reviews the overnight results from Nvidia and explains why this could stall the S&P 500 performance through to…

Read more »

The flag of the United States of America flying in front of the Capitol building
Investing Articles

2 Trump-hit stocks that look like golden opportunities for my Stocks and Shares ISA

This investor's weighing up a couple of world-class companies for his Stocks and Shares ISA after the US election sparked…

Read more »

Warren Buffett at a Berkshire Hathaway AGM
US Stock

Warren Buffett just bought and sold these stocks. Here’s why I don’t agree

Jon Smith takes a look at the recent regulatory filing for Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett and comments on recent…

Read more »

US Stock

My favourite US growth stock’s up 33% this year. I think it’s just getting started

Edward Sheldon's taken a large position in this well-known S&P 500 growth stock. And so far, it’s working very well…

Read more »

Smiling young man sitting in cafe and checking messages, with his laptop in front of him.
Investing Articles

ETFs are soaring! Here’s a star fund for Stocks and Shares ISA investors to consider

This exchange-traded fund (ETF) has risen 24% in value since last November. Royston Wild thinks it has room for significant…

Read more »

Middle-aged white man wearing glasses, staring into space over the top of his laptop in a coffee shop
US Stock

This is a huge week for Nvidia stock

It’s a make-or-break week for Nvidia stock as the company is posting its Q3 earnings on Wednesday. Here’s what investors…

Read more »