Few carriers have had as bumpy a ride over the last few years as easyJet (LSE: EZJ). The budget airline’s share price has taken a nosedive over the past five years, plummeting 44% and leaving investors wondering if their orange-branded ticket to riches has turned into a one-way trip to financial disappointment. But before we fasten our seatbelts and prepare for an emergency landing, let’s take a closer look at whether there’s still some high-flying value hidden in easyJet’s share price.
The troubled journey
To understand easyJet’s current position, we need to look at the factors that have caused turbulence for the airline over the past half-decade. It’s impossible to discuss any airline’s recent performance without mentioning the elephant in the cabin – Covid-19. The pandemic grounded flights, decimated revenues, and sent the aviation sector into a tailspin.
As a UK-based carrier with significant European operations, easyJet also found itself caught in the crosswinds of Brexit uncertainty. Concerns about routes, regulations, and currency fluctuations all added to the company’s woes. The airline industry’s Achilles heel has always been fuel costs, and with oil prices volatile as ever, easyJet’s profitability has faced constant pressure.
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Signs of a recovery?
Despite the gloomy long-term picture, there are some encouraging signs that the firm might be on a recovery trajectory. While down 44% over five years, easyJet’s shares have shown signs of life recently. The shares are up 10.58% in the past three months.
It reported robust forward bookings for the summer season in its latest update, indicating pent-up demand for travel post-pandemic. The package holiday business has been a bright spot, with customer numbers up 42% in the first half of the year. This diversification could provide a valuable revenue stream going forward.
On the operational front, easyJet has taken steps to streamline operations, including reducing its workforce and renegotiating supplier contracts. These efforts could improve profitability as travel demand recovers.
Turbulence remains
Macroeconomic uncertainties loom large, with inflation and recession fears potentially dampening consumer discretionary spending on travel.
This economic turbulence is compounded by the fierce competition in the low-cost carrier market, where rivals like Ryanair and Wizz Air continue to expand aggressively, potentially sparking price wars that could erode profitability. Moreover, the industry faces mounting pressure to reduce its carbon footprint, a challenge that could lead to substantial costs as companies strive to meet net-zero emissions targets by 2050.
easyJet also grapples with multiple operational hurdles. Growth may be constrained by limited airport slot availability and potential delays in aircraft deliveries, hampering the airline’s capacity expansion plans.
Foolish takeaway: a ticket worth buying?
After a turbulent five years, easyJet’s share price certainly looks more attractive than it once did. The company has weathered some severe storms and appears to be positioning itself for recovery. With a relatively low valuation and signs of improving business performance, there’s an argument to be made that easyJet represents good value at current levels.
However, potential investors should be mindful of the ongoing risks and challenges facing the airline industry. I like what I see of the improving landscape, but not enough to invest yet. I’ll add it to my watchlist instead.
