What’s going on with the Phoenix Group share price?

The Phoenix Group share price has had a rough time lately, down nearly 20% in five years. But with shifting demographics, is there an opportunity?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Older couple walking in park

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Phoenix Group (LSE: PHNX), a key player in the UK’s long-term savings and retirement sector could be at a critical juncture, with shifting demographics in the UK and an uncertain economic outlook. With the Phoenix Group share price down heavily in the last few years, I’ve taken a closer look at whether there could be an opportunity for investors.

Recent results

The latest results reveal a 19% annual increase in cash generation, reaching £647m in the first half of 2024. This growth is a positive indicator of operational efficiency. Furthermore, a 15% increase in operating profit, driven primarily by the capital-light pensions and savings business, demonstrates an ability to capitalise on core competencies.

However, the decision to halt the sale of SunLife, its over-50s protection business, marks a significant strategic shift. While CEO Andy Briggs frames this as aligning with a vision of becoming the UK’s leading retirement savings and income business, it raises questions about the long-term focus and ability to streamline operations.

Dividend concerns

The firm’s generous 9.13% dividend yield is undoubtedly attractive to income-focused investors. However, the sustainability of these payments is a critical concern. The negative payout ratio, now at an alarming -382%, indicates that the company isn’t covering its dividend payments with current earnings or free cash flow.

While high dividend yields can be maintained in the short term through cash or debt, this approach is clearly not sustainable over the long term. To me, potential investors should carefully consider whether this high yield compensates for the associated risks, and what a cut in the dividend could mean for the share price if required.

The valuation

Valuation calculations present a fairly mixed bag. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.3 times suggests the company might be undervalued. Conversely, the price-to-book ratio of 1.2 times indicates that the company is trading slightly above its net asset value, which is not unusual for a financial services firm with a strong market position.

A discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation, taking into account future cash flows, suggests the current share price is about 5% below fair value. I’d say this slight discount is justified due to the uncertainty in the sector.

What’s next?

The company’s focus on the UK retirement market positions it to potentially benefit from demographic trends, including an ageing population and increasing demand for retirement solutions. The recent expansion into the annuity market and launch of new retirement products demonstrate a proactive approach to capturing market share.

The company’s strong cash generation and strategic position in a growing market sector are positive factors. However, I’m extremely concerned about the sustainability of the high dividend yield, and the company’s ability to navigate economic uncertainties.

Clearly, the long-term growth potential of the UK retirement market is significant, but depends on management’s ability to maintain market position and expand product offerings. Only time will tell if this strategy will pay off.

Not for me

So while Phoenix Group shows potential for growth in a crucial market sector, the recent decline in the share price shows it also carries significant risks. The future of the company will depend on management’s ability to navigate the evolving retirement market landscape, while maintaining financial stability. I don’t particularly like the look of the fundamentals here, so I’ll be looking for other opportunities.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Gordon Best has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

How I’d use an empty Stocks and Shares ISA to aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income

Here's how using a Stocks and Shares ISA really could help those of us who plan to invest for an…

Read more »

Investing Articles

This FTSE stock is up 20% and set for its best day ever! Time to buy?

This Fool takes a look at the half-year results from Burberry (LON:BRBY) to see if the struggling FTSE stock might…

Read more »

Investing Articles

This latest FTSE 100 dip could be an unmissable opportunity to pick up cut-price stocks

The FTSE 100 has pulled back with the government’s policy choices creating some negative sentiment. But this gives us a…

Read more »

A young woman sitting on a couch looking at a book in a quiet library space.
Investing Articles

As the WH Smith share price falls 4% on annual results, is it still worth considering?

WH Smith took a hit after this morning’s results left shareholders unimpressed. With the share price down 4%, Mark Hartley…

Read more »

Investing Articles

The Aviva share price just jumped 4.5% but still yields 7.02%! Time to buy?

A positive set of results has put fresh life into the Aviva share price. Harvey Jones says it offers bags…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Can a €500m buyback kickstart the Vodafone share price?

The Vodafone share price has been a loser for investors in recent years, and the dividend has been cut. We…

Read more »

Frustrated young white male looking disconsolate while sat on his sofa holding a beer
Growth Shares

3 mistakes I now avoid when choosing which growth stocks to buy

Jon Smith runs through some of the lessons he's learnt the hard way over the years about what to look…

Read more »

Warren Buffett at a Berkshire Hathaway AGM
Investing Articles

Should I follow Warren Buffett and sell my favourite shares?

Billionaire US investor Warren Buffett has been selling tons of Apple shares and other stocks of businesses he thinks are…

Read more »