The Glencore (LSE: GLEN) share price makes ugly viewing these days, as I know to my cost. Every time I log on to my portfolio, it’s fallen another point or two.
Shares in the FTSE 100 mining giant hit a 52-week low of 362.8p on 11 September, after plunging 16.23% in a year. Over two years, they’re down 25.72%.
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I bought Glencore shares on 26 July last year at 472p then averaged down on 1 September at 429p. So far I’m down 20.84% overall. Should I average down again?
Is Glencore now a top FTSE 100 bargain?
My first response was ‘no chance’. But after looking more closely at Glencore, I’m beginning to feel more positive about it.
The commodities sector has been hammered by the slowdown in China, which for decades was the world’s most voracious consumer of metals and minerals.
Actually, slowdown is a polite way of describing it. China is in a mess, both financially and politically, and Beijing is struggling to find a solution. That’s because it’s a large part of the problem.
Political strategies have hampered the country’s entrepreneurial class. China is also sitting on a mountain of debt, while its property and shadow banking sectors are a powder keg.
The US may struggle to pick up the slack as it flirts with recession. Few expect a sudden resurgence in natural resources demand. The falling oil price confirms that.
The commodities sector has been hit across the board, but Glencore seems to have suffered more than others.
This LSE stock is still making money
That said, to my surprise, revenues actually rose 9% in the first half of the year, to around $117.1bn. However, adjusted operating profits shrank by 33% in EBITDA terms to $6.3bn. Glencore posted a net loss of $233m, down from a $4.6bn profit the year before. Ouch! That was partly due to $1.7bn of significant items, but still hurts.
Yet there were positives. The board was able to clear $1.3bn of net debt, cutting the total to just $3.65bn. And that was after funding $2.9bn of net capital expenditure and $1bn of shareholder returns. So it’s hardly a basket case.
Annualised free cash flow generation hit $6.1bn which CEO Gary Nagle says “augurs well” as it may top-up shareholder returns in February 2025. I hope he’s right. When I bought Glencore, it had a trailing yield of almost 6%, but that’s now just 2.76%.
I expected to bury Glencore, but now I can see plenty to praise. I wouldn’t describe the shares as dirt cheap, but they’re not that expensive either, trading at 10.76 time earnings.
Commodity stocks are notoriously cyclical. They’re prone to wild swings based on nothing more than investor sentiment. Today, sentiment is down in the dumps and Glencore shares could fall further in the short run. That would push them into deep, deep value territory. But they’re at the top of my shopping list in what could be a volatile autumn.
