Here’s why I’m watching the Apple share price in September

The Apple share price has historically struggled in September, but will this year be the same? This Fool wonders if there could be opportunities ahead.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Smiling white woman holding iPhone with Airpods in ear

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

September has historically been a tricky month for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares, but this year could be different. As a Foolish investor, I’m keeping a close eye on the Apple share price as we enter this traditionally challenging period. Here’s why.

Launch time

Why the focus on September? Well, it’s typically when the firm unveils its shiny new iPhones and other gadgets ahead of the crucial festive shopping season. Yet interestingly, over the past decade, the shares have averaged a 3.5% dip in September after enjoying gains of 6.5% in July and 4.8% in August.

But here’s where things get juicy — some analysts reckon this September could buck the trend. Morgan Stanley‘s Erik Woodring believes the upcoming iPhone 16 launch could be a game-changer. Why? Two words: Apple Intelligence. The integration of AI capabilities into new products could spark a frenzy of upgrades and breathe new life into the product cycle.

Now, I’m not one to get carried away by hype, but the potential for AI to shake up the smartphone market is undeniably exciting. If management can successfully leverage it to enhance the experience and productivity for it’s estimated 1.5bn users, it could give the company a significant edge over its competitors.

Uncertainty

For me, the company’s eventual foray into AI is particularly intriguing. While competitors like Google and Microsoft have been making headlines with AI offerings, Apple has been unusually quiet on this front. The integration of Apple Intelligence into the iPhone 16 could be the company’s next defining moment.

But it’s not just about the iPhone. The services business, with offerings like Apple TV+ and Apple Music, continues to grow. The potential for AI to enhance these services and create new revenue streams is immense.

But let’s not forget the challenges Apple faces. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, and consumer spending habits are evolving. UBS analyst David Vogt points out that August typically sees the lowest consumer purchases of iPhone models, which could put pressure on the September launch.

Moreover, the company’s reliance on iPhone sales — which accounted for a whopping 46% of total sales in the third quarter — means a lot is riding on the success of the new model.

Regulatory challenges, particularly in Europe, and increasing competition in emerging markets could put pressure on profit margins. The company’s high debt levels of $101bn are also worth keeping an eye on, although a strong balance sheet helps mitigate this concern.

I’m more interested in the ability to innovate and create value over time. A discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation suggests the current share price is only about 5% below fair value, so I’d be nervous about any disappointments sending the shares down.

Opportunities ahead

As we head into September, I’ll be watching Apple’s share price with keen interest. Will the launch break the cycle of September slumps? Can AI integration live up to the hype?

One thing’s for sure — it’s going to be an exciting month. As always, I’ll be looking beyond short-term price movements and focusing on the long-term potential. If it can successfully navigate the AI revolution, the future could be very bright indeed.

So grab the popcorn, fellow Fools. September promises to be a fascinating watch for shareholders and enthusiasts alike.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Gordon Best has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Apple. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Person holding magnifying glass over important document, reading the small print
Investing Articles

Just released: our top 3 small-cap stocks to consider buying in October [PREMIUM PICKS]

Small-cap shares tend to be more volatile than larger companies, so we suggest investors should look to build up a…

Read more »

Investing Articles

How I’d use an empty Stocks and Shares ISA to aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income

Here's how using a Stocks and Shares ISA really could help those of us who plan to invest for an…

Read more »

Investing Articles

This FTSE stock is up 20% and set for its best day ever! Time to buy?

This Fool takes a look at the half-year results from Burberry (LON:BRBY) to see if the struggling FTSE stock might…

Read more »

Investing Articles

This latest FTSE 100 dip could be an unmissable opportunity to pick up cut-price stocks

The FTSE 100 has pulled back with the government’s policy choices creating some negative sentiment. But this gives us a…

Read more »

A young woman sitting on a couch looking at a book in a quiet library space.
Investing Articles

As the WH Smith share price falls 4% on annual results, is it still worth considering?

WH Smith took a hit after this morning’s results left shareholders unimpressed. With the share price down 4%, Mark Hartley…

Read more »

Investing Articles

The Aviva share price just jumped 4.5% but still yields 7.02%! Time to buy?

A positive set of results has put fresh life into the Aviva share price. Harvey Jones says it offers bags…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Can a €500m buyback kickstart the Vodafone share price?

The Vodafone share price has been a loser for investors in recent years, and the dividend has been cut. We…

Read more »

Frustrated young white male looking disconsolate while sat on his sofa holding a beer
Growth Shares

3 mistakes I now avoid when choosing which growth stocks to buy

Jon Smith runs through some of the lessons he's learnt the hard way over the years about what to look…

Read more »