FTSE 250 incumbent Bank of Georgia Group (LSE: BGEO) is a stock I’ve been watching for some time.
It’s popped up on my radar once again due to the fact that the share price has been falling in recent weeks. Sometimes this can be a sign of trouble. However, in this case, I don’t think it is.
Let me explain what’s happening, and why I’d be willing to buy some shares as soon as I can.
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Political ramifications
The business offers banking and wealth management services to the European country. According to analysts including Fitch, Georgia is set for huge growth ahead. This has made the prospect of buying the shares attractive for me in the past.
It’s worth mentioning that the shares are up 22% over a 12-month period from 3,030p at this time last year, to current levels of 3,700p. However, they’ve fallen 31% from 5,420p at the beginning of May, to current levels.
The reason for this recent fall is not operational or trading issues. It’s the fact that political issues – namely elections – have kicked off in the country. Without getting bogged down in the details, one main party is looking to get closer to Russia, and the other is aiming for an alliance with the West. Plus, Georgians are protesting a ‘foreign agents’ bill that many argue could hurt democratic freedoms. This uncertainty and unrest has hurt the firm’s share price.
The bull and bear case
My excitement around the stock hasn’t gone away. As the region is set to grow from a wealth perspective, there could still be an opportunity to buy some shares and capitalise. Bank of Georgia has a market-leading presence in the country.
Plus, before the dip, a dividend yield of between 5% and 6% was very attractive. It’s been pushed up just over 7% due to the share price drop. This is the type of level of return I’d look for to help me build a second income. However, I do understand that dividends are never guaranteed.
Next, the current valuation is dirt-cheap, in my eyes at least. The shares trade on a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of just four.
Despite recent share price issues, Bank of Georgia reported positive Q1 results on 29 May. The business completed another acquisition for growth purposes. Plus, it saw an increase of 166,000 retail customers in this period. Customer deposits, loan growth, and operating income all grew compared to the same time last year. These were just some of the key takeaways for me that provided some positivity during what’s been a testing time.
The obvious risk for me is continued political issues that could stop Bank of Georgia’s growth, momentum, and even performance of recent years gone by. There’s no telling what may happen on the political side of things that could dent the stocks future prospects and investment viability. It’s definitely the case of keeping a close eye on events.
Personally, I think there’s an amazing dip buying opportunity and that’s what I’ll be doing as soon as I can.
