Why have Rolls-Royce shares fallen this week?

Rolls-Royce shares remain the best performing on the FTSE 100 over the past year, but there’s been some pullback. Dr James Fox explores.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Image source: Rolls-Royce plc

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR) shares are up 178.5% over 12 months, but down 3.1% over the past week. Of course, it’s not unusual for stocks, even those on incredible bull runs, to pull back. But this was different. Rolls fell from 432p per share to 398p. That’s quite the dip. Let’s take a closer look.

Defence pull back

Shares in defence stocks fell the week beginning 8 April as analysts suggested that the sector could be getting a little crowded — too many investors taking the same strategy. European defence stocks have done something almost unimaginable over the past two years, and that’s closing the valuation gap with their American peers.

European companies, including defence stocks, have traded at a discount to their American peers for a long time. Yes, the US stock market receives more attention than the UK and European exchanges, but this premium has traditionally reflected the fact that European countries have often shied away from their 2% NATO spending commitments.

All this changed when Russia invaded Ukraine. European countries have stepped up their defence spending and they’ve also been donating lethal aid to Ukraine.

The pullback simply reflected concerns that European defence stocks might be getting a little expensive. I’d also suggest that Lord Cameron’s meeting with Donald Trump — who says he’ll stop the war in Ukraine if elected — added more fuel to the fire.

A little overdone?

In 2023, around a quarter of Rolls-Royce’s revenues came from the defence sector. The London-headquartered firm is a leading engine maker for the military transport market and the second-largest provider of defence aero-engine products and services globally. These are big-ticket items, not like ammunition and guns.

Personally, I think the selloff of Rolls-Royce stock was potentially overdone. After all, defence is by no means the company’s largest business segment and Rolls previously suggested that the war in Ukraine didn’t have a material impact on earnings. My interpretation is that Rolls benefits from broader geopolitical tensions, and long-term defence contracts, such as the AUKUS programme.

Valuations

Of course, the above leads us to ask whether Rolls-Royce shares are overvalued. And in my opinion, they’re not. The civil aerospace giant is currently trading at 23.25 times forward earnings, and this figure drops to 19.2 in 2025, and eventually 16.2 in 2027 — that’s as far as the forecasts go.

This actually puts it at a significant discount to peers like GE Aerospace, which trades at 40 times forward earnings. GE’s price-to-earnings ratio falls to 31.4 times in 2025 and eventually 25.4 times in 2027. It’s substantially more expensive than its British peer.

The bottom line

Rolls-Royce is a company with a lot of positive factors and not many challenges right now. If I were being critical, I’d suggest the company is potentially too dependent on its civil aerospace unit as the pandemic — an exceptional circumstance — showed.

I, personally, still see Rolls-Royce as a stock with plenty of potential. It’s substantially cheaper than GE Aerospace and all three of its main business units — including defence — are booming.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

James Fox has positions in Rolls-Royce Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Rolls-Royce Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

2 of my favourite, cheap FTSE 100 growth shares this November!

These FTSE 100 growth shares could be great long-term picks to consider, reckons Royston Wild. At current prices he thinks…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Up 26%, can the BT share price really push higher still?

The BT share price has surged on several catalysts in 2024, but there’s evidence to suggest that the stock could…

Read more »

Man writing 'now' having crossed out 'later', 'tomorrow' and 'next week'
Investing Articles

What are the best dividend shares to buy right now?

As shares in B&M European Value Retail have fallen, the dividend yield has reached a 10-year high. Should investors be…

Read more »

Surprised Black girl holding teddy bear toy on Christmas
Investing Articles

My favourite FTSE 100 passive income stock that keeps the Christmas coffers full

The holiday season is expensive and can leave many consumers struggling to make ends meet. Here’s how I use a…

Read more »

Investing Articles

The latest growth forecasts suggest the Glencore share price will hit 555p!

Harvey Jones has been disappointed by the performance of the Glencore share price since he bought the commodity stock last…

Read more »

Dividend Shares

A closer look at the 11% dividend yield forecast for Phoenix Group shares

Phoenix Group shares have one of the highest dividend yields in the FTSE 100 index today. Could this be a…

Read more »

Investing Articles

If I’d put £25,000 into the FTSE 350 at the start of 2024, here’s how much I’d have today!

Many FTSE shares have rebounded this year as interest rates look set to keep heading lower and market appetite for…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Up 40%, but experts forecast the easyJet share price could soon hit 664p! Time to buy?

The easyJet share price has been flying lately and stock analysts are predicting more fun to come. But there's only…

Read more »