If I’d put £1,000 in BP shares 5 years ago, here’s what I’d have now!

We all know that BP shares are on the rise, but how have they performed in the long run? Dr James Fox takes a closer look at the energy giant.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Petrochemical engineer working at night with digital tablet inside oil and gas refinery plant

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

BP (LSE:BP) shares have been rising since January. In fact, the stock’s up 12.4% over three months. However, over five years, shares in the energy giant are actually down 8.4%. That might surprise some investors given the momentum we’ve seen since the pandemic.

So if I’d invested £1,000 in BP shares five years ago, today my shares would be worth £916. Of course, I’d have received dividends throughout that period, but there were some tough years in there — the pandemic. On average, I’d have received around £20 a year over the period.

In other words, I’d be £16 richer for leaving £1,000 in BP shares for five years. Clearly, that’s not a strong return on my investment. Especially over a five-year period.

What about now?

Should I invest in BP shares today? That’s a good question. I find the dynamics of the Big Oil — the six largest oil and gas majors — sector very interesting. You’ve got the US peers trading at huge premiums, Shell in the middle, and BP trading at a discount and in line with Eni and Total.

Broadly, we can attribute this to strong returns by the US companies — but they’re overvalued in my view — and weak returns at Eni and Total. BP’s discount is largely reflective of its debt position. And much of this still relates to the Deep Water Horizon disaster.

BP is currently trading around 7.6 times earnings from the last year and 8.7 times projected earnings for the year ahead. That’s around 30% cheaper than US-listed Chevron and Exxon.

Using the EV-to-EBITDA ratio, which takes into account debt and net cash position, BP still looks inexpensive. The stock trades at 3.39 times using the ratio, versus 5.69 times at Chevron and 6.83 times at Exxon. It’s also a little cheaper than Shell at 4.36 times.

These relative valuations all suggest that BP stock could be a good buy. However, debt is more of an issue in cyclical industries. After all, servicing debt if oil prices fall below extraction costs would represent a challenge.

Black gold prices

BP has a diverse portfolio and had been diverting a lot of capital towards greener energies. However, the stock rises and falls on the price of oil. Its peers do the same. Over the past month, we’ve seen more movement in oil prices. A month ago, the spot price for Brent Crude was $82 and, at the time of writing, it’s just short of $90.

This is reflective of the geopolitical realities we face today, in addition to supply and demand dynamics. An escalation of wars in Ukraine and Gaza could seriously put global supply under threat. Especially as Russia and the Middle East are among two of the largest exporters/exporting regions.

I’m quite bullish on oil in the long run, noting global population growth, middle-class growth in developing economies, and a slow transition to green energy. My preference in the sector is for either BP or Shell, which is useful as they’re both UK listed.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

James Fox has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

5 steps to start buying shares with under £500

Learn how this writer would start buying shares with a few hundred pounds in a handful of steps, if he…

Read more »

Young happy white woman loading groceries into the back of her car
Investing Articles

The FTSE 100 offers some great bargains. Is this one?

Our writer digs into one FTSE 100 share that has had a rough 2024 to date, ahead of its interim…

Read more »

Smiling white woman holding iPhone with Airpods in ear
Investing Articles

£9,000 of savings? Here’s my 3-step approach to aim for £1,794 in passive income

Christopher Ruane walks through the practical steps he would take to try and turn £9,000 into a sizeable passive income…

Read more »

Group of young friends toasting each other with beers in a pub
Investing Articles

I’d buy 29,412 shares of this UK dividend stock for £150 a month in passive income

Insiders have been buying this dividend stock, which offers an 8.5% yield. Roland Head explains why he’d choose the shares…

Read more »

Red briefcase with the words Budget HM Treasury embossed in gold
Investing Articles

Could the new UK budget spell growth for these 6 FTSE stocks? I think so!

Mark David Hartley considers six UK stocks that could enjoy growth off the back of new measures announced in the…

Read more »

Investing Articles

With a 6.6% yield, is now the right time to add this income stock to my ISA?

Our writer’s looking to boost his Stocks and Shares ISA. With this in mind, he’s debating whether to buy a…

Read more »

Dividend Shares

This blue-chip FTSE stock just fell 12.5% in a day. Is it time to consider buying?

Smith & Nephew is a well-known, blue-chip FTSE stock with a decent dividend yield. And its share price just dropped…

Read more »

Investing Articles

At 72p, the Vodafone share price looks to be at least 33% undervalued to me

Our writer looks at a number of valuation measures to determine whether the Vodafone share price reflects the fair value…

Read more »