Will these FTSE 100 shares crash in September?

With market activity likely to pick up as traders return to their desks, Paul Summers picks out two FTSE 100 shares that could tumble next month.

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August hasn’t been a great month for many FTSE 100 shares and there’s always a chance things will get worse as we hobble into September. This is particularly the case for companies due to update the market next month.

Here are two top-tier businesses that could be in for a rough ride.

Tough market

With further rate rises on the cards, full-year results from Barratt Developments (LSE: BDEV) on 6 September will be required reading for me. The outlook statement from management will be particularly important.

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I doubt it will be pretty. Higher mortgage rates coupled with an enduring cost-of-living crisis tend not to result in a flood of buyers.

In line with this, property portal Rightmove reported on Monday that the average asking price for homes dropped 1.9% this month. That’s the largest fall in August in five years.

Clearly, it’s going to take time for business — and Barratt’s share price — to fully recover. The question is how much of this pain is baked in?

Already priced in?

I’m inclined to say “quite a lot“. Barratt’s stock trades on a price-to-book ratio of 0.75. This suggests expectations are already appropriately low.

In addition to this, it’s worth highlighting that Barratt and most of its peers are in far better shape than they were during the Financial Crisis.

And while we don’t know when exactly this will happen, there will inevitably come a time when interest rates stop rising. This is why I think having some exposure to housebuilders makes sense for a long-term investor like me, especially given the ongoing shortage of quality homes.

If I didn’t already own FTSE 100 peer Persimmon, I’d consider buying here, but perhaps only after those results are delivered.

Wash out

Another blue-chip business that could have a troubling September is B&Q owner Kingfisher (LSE: KGF). Its share price has also declined in the last 12 months.

Yes, it’s still to hit the 52-low seen in November of 2022 following that disastrous mini-budget. And, yes, the 3% or so decline in 2023 is in line with the return of the index.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Kingfisher Plc PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.co.uk

However, I suspect half-year results on 19 September might contain a few nasties.

A (very) wet July will surely have held back sales of gardening equipment and furniture. Surveys are also suggesting that people with limited discretionary income are prioritising holidays over things like home improvement.

One further, ominous sign for me is that the company is the most shorted stock on the UK market. In other words, a not-insignificant number of traders are betting that the Kingfisher share price has further to fall.

Bargain FTSE 100 share or value trap?

Again, it’s worth asking how much of this is reflected in the stock’s valuation?

Kingfisher shares currently change hands for nine times forecast earnings. That’s cheap, relative to the Consumer Cyclicals sector and to the market in general.

The shares also boast a dividend yield of 5.3%, covered twice by expected profit.

Nevertheless, a 20% fall in five years (not including dividends) is pretty poor considering the company enjoyed a huge tailwind in the form of multiple UK lockdowns during the pandemic.

So that low price tag looks fairly justified. And I reckon things are about to get worse before they get better.

Like buying £1 for 31p

This seems ridiculous, but we almost never see shares looking this cheap. Yet this Share Advisor pick has a price/book ratio of 0.31. In plain English, this means that investors effectively get in on a business that holds £1 of assets for every 31p they invest!

Of course, this is the stock market where money is always at risk — these valuations can change and there are no guarantees. But some risks are a LOT more interesting than others, and at The Motley Fool we believe this company is amongst them.

What’s more, it currently boasts a stellar dividend yield of around 10%, and right now it’s possible for investors to jump aboard at near-historic lows. Want to get the name for yourself?

See the full investment case

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Paul Summers owns shares in Persimmon Plc. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Rightmove Plc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

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