9.87% yield? Here’s the 2-year dividend forecast for ITV shares

Jon Smith crunches the dividend forecast numbers for ITV and finds out how the dividend yield could be very attractive for investors.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Concept of two young professional men looking at a screen in a technological data centre

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Sitting in the FTSE 250, ITV (LSE:ITV) can sometimes be forgotten by investors trying to build income portfolios. Further, the 45% fall in the share price over the past two years (broadly flat over the past year) might also scare some away. Yet when looking at the core business and the dividend forecasts, I think it could be a smart buy.

Taking stock of the numbers

At the moment, the dividend yield is 7.1%. The dividend per share of 5p that this takes into account is made up of the interim dividend of 1.7p from last year and the final dividend following the full-year results of 3.3p in March.

Typically, two dividends are paid each year in this usual timeframe. The second one for 2023 is forecasted to be 1.7p, so the total for 2023 is likely to be unchanged at 5p total.

However, the 2024 forecasts are for 2p and 4.5p (6.5p total), with 2025 estimates being 2.5p and 4.5p (7p total). Granted, trying to predict the dividend payments for 2025 isn’t an exact science! But the general theme is clear to me that investors are expecting the dividends to increase.

Caution when making predictions

When trying to extrapolate the dividend figures into a dividend yield, I have to be careful. This is because the yield involves the share price, which changes every day. So I can’t say for sure what the yield will be next year or beyond.

Not only that, but dividends aren’t guaranteed payments in the same way a bond coupon is. This means that ITV could decide to cut the dividend based on future financial performance.

If I assume the share price stays the same, I can get a rough guide. So for 2024, the forecasted yield would be 9.16%. For 2025, this could rise to 9.87%. As we currently stand, that would make it one of the highest yielding stocks in the entire FTSE 250.

Why ITV could deliver

Aside from the pure numbers, could ITV fundamentally deliver on such forecasts? A good measure of this is the dividend cover. This looks at how many times the dividend per share can be covered by the latest earnings. For ITV, it stands at 2.64. Any number larger than one is a positive, so this figure is more than comfortable.

ITV earnings are robust. Even though traditional advertising revenue fell 1% year on year, growth in in-house production (ITV Studios) was impressive. This growth was noted both in the UK market and in the US.

On the basis that this division, along with streaming, can continue to grow and support the decline in ad revenue, I don’t see any major problem for future earnings. As a mature company, a key way that the business can keep shareholders engaged is via dividend payments.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Jon Smith has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended ITV. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

happy senior couple using a laptop in their living room to look at their financial budgets
Investing Articles

How’s the dividend forecast looking for Legal & General shares in 2025 and beyond?

As a shareholder, I like to keep track of the potential dividend returns I could make from my Legal &…

Read more »

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Could buying this stock with a $7bn market cap be like investing in Nvidia in 2010?

Where might the next Nvidia-type stock be lurking in today's market? Our writer takes a look at one candidate with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »

Silhouette of a bull standing on top of a landscape with the sun setting behind it
Investing Articles

Is the S&P 500 going to 10,000 by 2030? This expert thinks so

One stock market strategist sees animal spirits taking hold and driving the S&P 500 index even higher by the end…

Read more »