Is the Centrica share price a long-term bargain?

A share buyback programme suggests Centrica management is feeling bullish. So why does the Centrica share price not tempt our writer?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

Petrochemical engineer working at night with digital tablet inside oil and gas refinery plant

Image source: Getty Images

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Things have been looking up in recent years at energy company Centrica (LSE: CNA). The company has sharpened its strategic focus, boasts an improved balance sheet and has become profitable again after several loss-making years. Today it announced a share buyback programme, highlighting that the company is producing surplus cash. The Centrica share price moved up in early trading this morning and is now 31% higher than it was a year ago.

As a long-term investor, though, do I have the opportunity to buy the shares now in the hope of even stronger results in years to come?

Unpredictable industry

I have my doubts.

Cleaning up its balance sheet made Centrica more attractive to me as an investor as it is no longer burdened by the billions of pounds in debt it previously had. But the underlying business performance has been helped by strong energy prices recently.

Energy prices are unpredictable though – and outside Centrica’s control. That is one of the things I do not like about the business. Its large installed customer base means it ought to have long-term sources of revenue, but profits are far harder to predict. In the long term, if energy prices fall a lot, that could hurt Centrica’s profitability badly.

On top of that it is heavily exposed to the UK gas market as the owner of brands including British Gas. UK government figures suggest that gas demand has fallen 23% in the past two decades. I expect gas use to fall further in the UK in the coming decade due to political pressure.

Solid business performance

Set against that, Centrica has quite a bit going for it.

As well as gas it does have other businesses, such as electricity supply. Its energy trading business could also do well in future – people will still need energy, even if the sources are different to today.

The company had 10.2m customers at the end of June. That number actually grew 1% compared to the same point in the prior year. Although Centrica has been shedding customers over the long term, its large installed base and strong brands could help it make profits for years or even decades to come.

Last year the company was profitable, but at the interim point this year it recorded an £864m loss. Centrica said the loss was due to “the high commodity price environment”, which adds to my concerns about the risk energy price volatility poses to the firm’s profits.

The share price does not attract me

Centrica has some attractive features. But I do not like the long-term outlook for gas demand and find the company’s inconsistent performance a concern. I do not see its valuation as a bargain.

Buying back shares is a vote of management confidence in the company’s cash generation. But the move would have been more beneficial if it had acted a couple of years ago when the share price was less than half what it is today. Meanwhile, the dividend remains a fraction of what it was up to 2018.

I would rather invest in a company with a consistently profitable business model and resilient long-term market demand. So the current share price does not tempt me to buy into the business.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

C Ruane has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Mature Caucasian woman sat at a table with coffee and laptop while making notes on paper
Investing Articles

10% dividend growth! 2 FTSE 100 stocks tipped to supercharge cash payouts

These FTSE 100 stocks have strong records of dividend growth. And they're expected to keep on delivering, as Royston Wild…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Down 17% in a month and yielding 7.39%! Is this FTSE 100 share a screaming buy for me?

When Harvey Jones bought Taylor Wimpey last year he thought this FTSE 100 share was a brilliant long-term buy-and-hold. Has…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s how I’m using a £20k ISA to target £11k+ in income 30 years from now

Is it realistic to put £20k in an ISA now and earn over half that amount every year in passive…

Read more »

Young black colleagues high-fiving each other at work
Investing Articles

If I could only keep 5 UK stocks from my portfolio I’d save these

Harvey Jones is running through his portfolio of top UK stocks to see which ones he couldn't bear to do…

Read more »

Midnight is celebrated along the River Thames in London with a spectacular and colourful firework display.
Investing Articles

I’m aiming for a million buying unexciting shares!

By investing regularly in long-established, proven and even rather dull businesses, this writer plans to aim for a million. Here's…

Read more »

Investing Articles

3 things to consider before you start investing

Our writer draws on his stock market experience to consider a few vital lessons he would use to start investing…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Will this lesser-known £28bn growth stock be joining the FTSE 100 soon?

As the powers that be plan a reorganisation of Footsie listing rules, this massive under-the-radar growth stock could find its…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Fools wouldn’t touch these 5 FTSE 350 flops with a bargepole – how come I own 3 of them?

Harvey Jones took a chance on three struggling FTSE 350 stocks in the hope that they'd stage a dramatic recovery.…

Read more »