Abrdn (LSE:ABDN) shares have had a difficult year. The asset manager began 2022 buoyed by improving financials only to be hit by sky-high inflation and the worsening economic outlook of the UK.
In the first half (H1) of 2022, the firm recorded a total pre-tax loss of £320m. Fee-based revenue dropped 8% to £696m and adjusted operating profits fell 28% to £115m.
As a result, Abrdn shares are down 47% in 12 months and 42% so far in 2022.
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This prompted a demotion from the FTSE 100 in September and the investment firm is now a part of the mid-cap FTSE 250 index.
But things could be changing. Abrdn shares are up 8% in the last week. Could this beaten-down stock present a mixture of growth and value, factoring in this historic decline and the 10.7% dividend yield? Let’s find out.
Cheap or a value trap?
Most shares that fall nearly 50% in a year will appear cheap on paper. Looking at the performance of Abrdn shares performance over time, it is clear that the firm has declined steadily since hitting an all-time high of 571p in 2015.
The company has undergone many changes over the last decade, including a merger and subsequent sale of the Standard Life business, several high-profile boardroom changes, and a rebranding effort.
Most investment firms are struggling at the moment. The larger economic collapse in the UK has caused trading volumes to drop.
This marketwide pullback caused Abrdn’s assets under management (AUM) to fall £34bn in H1 2022. Despite this, the company has managed to hold on to its position as one of the largest asset managers in the UK.
And I think the latest collapse in Abrdn shares is primarily due to current market conditions rather than a failing business model. This is why I still hold on to my opinion that it is a bargain right now.
Positives and verdict
Abrdn has been a consistent dividend payer for over 15 years now. In July 2022, the company managed to roll out a share buyback worth £300m. The board also announced its plans to return £500m to shareholders after the firm was removed from the FTSE 100 last month.
The firm has also changed how it uses excess cash. While many analysts questioned the acquisition of Interactive Investor for £1.5bn, the firm has also been shedding excesses to generate more cash.
Heading into H2 2022, the investment firm sold two of its stakes in HDFC for about £500m. The company also sold £300m worth of Phoenix Group shares to fund the aforementioned share buyback program.
This makes me optimistic that the company plans on maintaining a decent dividend going forward. While the current yield of 10% might be unsustainable given falling profits, I think the annual yield will remain higher than the FTSE 100 average of 3.5%.
When the economy recovers, I expect large asset managers to recover quickly. Given its current sky-high yield and history of shareholder returns, I think Abrdn shares currently offer a nice mix of growth potential and value. I am wary of further economic turmoil in the UK, which is why I am looking at a £1,000 lump sum investment when conditions stabilise.
