Should I buy Boeing shares at $156?

In the coming quarters, Boeing shares could see increased volatility as the 737 Max-10 recertification deadline edges closer.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Over the last decade, Boeing (NYSE:BA) shares grew to new heights with particular help from the 737 Max programme, launched in 2013, in which Boeing received thousands of new orders from airlines across the globe.

In the eight years that followed, Boeing achieved record deliveries and free cashflow grew consistently year over year. Investors benefitted from both annual dividends and share buybacks on top of share price appreciation.

From 2013 to 2018, Boeing shares rose by 160% from $135 to $350. 

Unfortunately, shortcuts taken by management lead to the famous Manoeuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) issue resulting in two fatal 737 crashes in 2018/19. Boeing agreed to a settlement of $2.5bn for the airlines and victims’ families. Today Boeing faces different issues particularly supply chain restrictions and recertification of the 737 Max-10.

Boeing CEO David Calhoun told Aviation Week magazine that if the aircraft fails to meet the end-of-year deadline and congress doesn’t extend the 737 Max-10 exemption for installing the pilot warning system, he may cancel the programme. Such an event would be disastrous for Boeing, leading to significant asset write-downs, order book cancellations and customers moving to the likes of Airbus.

Turning point

The string of disappointing news over the last few years has left Boeing shares trading way below the $200 mark. Despite the current headwinds, Boeing’s 737 Max still has a lower fuel consumption in comparison to Airbus’s A320neo (according to Boeing) and the programme still has a 3,400+ order book.

In the event of a recession the backlog is unlikely to be entirely depleted, as production rates would need to exceed 2018 levels (800+ deliveries), which is not a realistic possibility. During the second quarter earnings call this week, management confirmed that they’re in the final stages of restarting 787 deliveries.

With this positive news, there are two key turning points I am focusing on:

  1. Recertification of 737 Max-10 or congress extending exemption;
  2. Supply chain issues abating.

Supply issues appear to be improving already as Boeing’s Q2 delivery numbers increased to 121 — of that number 103 were 737 aircraft. Only 86 737 aircraft were delivered in Q1.

Furthermore, airlines continue to place new orders with Boeing despite supply issues and certification uncertainty. If Boeing is successful in certifying 737 Max-10 before year end, the stock could easily exceed the $200 mark as free cashflow would be anticipated to recover to pre-pandemic levels ($12-13bn) in the coming years.

At the current valuation of $85bn ($156 per share), Boeing has room for share-price appreciation as free cashflow is estimated to reach $12bn by FY24 according to Wall Street. This would imply a two-year forward market cap/free cashflow (MC/FCF) of 7x. Historically Boeing usually trades at 18x MC/FCF — in other words, the stock is cheap.

Conclusion

It can be argued Boeing is approaching a turning point in the coming quarters potentially making Boeing a buy for me at $156. Demand is strong as the total order book value of the commercial airline business is $290bn with an additional $60bn in defence contracts waiting to be fulfilled. Two board members have purchased noticeable volumes of shares in the last six months demonstrating a vote of confidence.

I’ve added Boeing shares to my watchlist as I patiently wait on operational developments and investor updates, mainly what is happening with the 737 Max-10.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

George Theodosi has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

happy senior couple using a laptop in their living room to look at their financial budgets
Investing Articles

How’s the dividend forecast looking for Legal & General shares in 2025 and beyond?

As a shareholder, I like to keep track of the potential dividend returns I could make from my Legal &…

Read more »

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Could buying this stock with a $7bn market cap be like investing in Nvidia in 2010?

Where might the next Nvidia-type stock be lurking in today's market? Our writer takes a look at one candidate with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »

Silhouette of a bull standing on top of a landscape with the sun setting behind it
Investing Articles

Is the S&P 500 going to 10,000 by 2030? This expert thinks so

One stock market strategist sees animal spirits taking hold and driving the S&P 500 index even higher by the end…

Read more »