Picked well, penny stocks have the potential to dramatically improve my wealth in a short period of time. This is especially true if I hold them in a Stocks and Shares ISA. Doing so means I won’t need to pay tax on any profits I make.
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Today, I’m returning to look at a company that’s been on my watchlist ever since it was listed in June 2021. Should I finally dip my toe in the water?
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Penny stock disaster
Based on recent performance, it’s just as well I’ve held back from pulling the trigger on bathroom specialist Victorian Plumbing (LSE: VIC). From jumping to a 52-week high of almost 342p early on, the share price has since collapsed 75% to 85p. What on earth’s happened here?
I don’t think there’s one single factor to blame. As I remarked at the time, it’s clear that Victorian Plumbing’s IPO was opportunistic and designed to coincide with the boom in DIY seen since the beginning of the pandemic. This allowed original investors to make an absolute killing. And I can’t really blame them for wanting to achieve the best price possible for their stakes.
The issue with being the largest IPO ever on the junior AIM market is that new investor expectations jumped ahead of reality. Since those heady days, Victorian Plumbing has experienced issues with its supply chain (like many other businesses). Revenue growth has also slowed as the rush to buy new bathroom suites replaced with spending on other things.
Buy the (big) dip?
On the one hand, I’m now able to buy stock in a cash-generative company for 17 times earnings, based on analyst forecasts. That’s not screamingly cheap but nor is it is eye-poppingly expensive. Interestingly, VIC also has a PEG (price/earnings-to-growth) ratio of just 0.5. Anything less than one suggests new buyers are getting a lot of bang for their bucks.
I’m also attracted to Victorian’s online-only/capital-light business model. It’s already profitable (in contrast to a lot of highly-valued fluff out there) and there’s a decent amount of cash on the books.
Furthermore, the company has a sizeable share of the market and customer reviews are generally very positive. To round things off, CEO/founder Mark Radcliffe retains a huge 47% stake. If anyone wants the company to bounce back, it’s him.
But let not get ahead of ourselves. An obvious risk with this penny stock is that things could get worse before they get better. A military conflict in Eastern Europe has the potential to hit growth stocks like this, even if it’s irrelevant to selling bathrooms. Margins look like being squeezed for the foreseeable future too.
Victorian Plumbing also has a small free float. Just 35% of the company’s stock is available to trade in the market. That could exacerbate an already bad situation. It only takes a small amount of selling to really move the needle. On a more optimistic note, the reverse is also true.
My verdict
I do feel like the (prolonged) sell-off of this penny stock has been overdone. Nevertheless, I’m inclined to wait until after this month’s AGM (and a potential update on trading) before deciding whether now is the time to strike.
For now, this penny stock stays on my ISA watchlist.
