How low can the Rolls-Royce share price go?

The Rolls-Royce share price has fallen by a third since the start of December. Christopher Ruane considers whether it has reached the bottom.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

It’s been a challenging time for aircraft engine makers and Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) is no exception. With the Rolls-Royce share price losing a third of its value since early December, the question some investors will be asking is: how low can it go?

Here I consider what is driving the share price lower – and where it might go next.

The Rolls-Royce share price has fallen

Although the Rolls-Royce share price has lost ground in recent months, it is almost unchanged over the past year, shedding just under 2%. That it is behind the FTSE 100 gain of 10% in that period, but it is far from terrible.

The announcement of vaccines late last year helped boost the Rolls-Royce share price. Investors anticipated travel demand increasing. Since then, the shares have fallen back to roughly where they were a year ago. That suggests the outlook now is similar to then.

But is that right?

Aviation demand is coming back

I think UK investors may be overemphasising local news when it comes to the pace of aviation recovery. In some markets, civil aviation is back with a vengeance. The world’s biggest civil aviation market is normally the US. US carrier Delta said last week domestic leisure demand is back to pre-pandemic levels.

That doesn’t mean flying is back to normal. Business demand remains subdued, and European markets are behind the US in reopening. Nonetheless, what the US shows is that once passengers can fly again, many of them will. 

Other revenue streams

In addition, it’s also worth noting that civil aviation is only one of Rolls-Royce’s business areas. Admittedly it is crucial to the company. But that shouldn’t overshadow the fact that the company derives substantial income from areas such as defence and power systems. They have proven more robust during the pandemic than civil aviation.

Sentiment over facts

So, if civil aviation demand is set to recover, why has the Rolls-Royce share price continued to weaken?

Partly I think that investors have soured on the company. Tumbling revenues last year combined with a highly dilutive rights issue meant that the investment case looked weaker than before. But even before the pandemic, Rolls-Royce had been struggling to impress investors. It had issued a profit warning in 2019.

Once sentiment takes hold in the stock market, share valuations can become detached from underlying financial analysis. That’s why I think the Rolls-Royce share price could still move lower from here. Despite a lower share price and a recovering aviation market, the shares still seem to have fallen out of favour with the City.

My next move on the Rolls-Royce share price

So does that represent a buying opportunity for my portfolio?

For now, I don’t think so. The company has repeatedly said it expects to turn cash flow positive in the second half. There is a risk that if it revises that date, the shares could yet fall further. The stuttering nature of travel recovery in Europe could also continue to affect sentiment towards the shares, even if other markets return to health.

I still think the Rolls-Royce share price could move up this year. But that is not assured. The next move could be further down from here – there is nothing to stop the shares continuing to move lower.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Christopher Ruane has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing For Beginners

Up 31% in a month, could this FTSE 250 stock be getting bought out?

Jon Smith takes a look at speculation that's pushing the share price of a FTSE 250 share higher and considers…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s how I’d follow Warren Buffett to start building passive income in 2025

Ben McPoland highlights one FTSE 250 firm with a strong competitive edge that he thinks can continue rewarding investors with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Burberry shares: undervalued FTSE gems that are ready to rocket?

Burberry shares soared at the beginning of the week as the takeover rumour mill went into overdrive. Is Paul Summers…

Read more »

US Stock

Here are the latest share price forecasts for S&P 500 giant Amazon

Amazon has generated monster gains for investors over the last decade. And Wall Street analysts believe the S&P 500 stock…

Read more »

Man writing 'now' having crossed out 'later', 'tomorrow' and 'next week'
Investing Articles

2 high-yield FTSE 250 shares I’d buy today — and 1 that I’d avoid

UK markets have felt some volatility after last week’s Budget and the FTSE 250 was no stranger to it. Our…

Read more »

Investing Articles

3 reasons the Rolls-Royce share price could soar over the next decade

Sustainable aviation fuel, narrow-body aircraft, and small nuclear reactors could all keep the Rolls-Royce share price climbing over the next…

Read more »

British flag, Big Ben, Houses of Parliament and British flag composition
Investing Articles

Here’s how much income I’d get if I invested my entire £20k ISA in cheap BT shares

BT shares are on the up but still cheap, while the FTSE 100 telecoms stock offers a good yield too.…

Read more »

Investing Articles

2 FTSE dividend shares yielding more than 6% with P/Es of less than 9!

Harvey Jones picks out two brilliant FTSE 100 dividend shares that yield more than 6% but are selling at strangely…

Read more »