Is the NIO share price ripe for a fall?

The NIO share price could suffer a significant decline if the company struggles to take market share from its larger peers, argues this Fool.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The NIO (NYSE: NIO) share price has become one of the hottest investments to own during the past 12 months. Indeed, during this period, the stock is up around 560%.

It seems to me investors are buying into the company’s growth story. The electric vehicle manufacturer is ramping up production. In April, it said it had completed upgrades to its manufacturing capacity to allow the production of 10,000 vehicles per month.

What’s more, a few weeks ago, it announced a deal with the Chinese state-owned automaker Jianghuai Automobile Group, which manufactures its vehicles, to increase production to around 20,000 cars per month. 

Unfortunately, the output is currently restricted to 7,500 vehicles a month due to a shortage of battery cells and semiconductors. Nevertheless, in April, NIO announced the production of its 100,000th vehicle. 

NIO share price competitors 

Compared to other electric vehicle producers, the corporation is charging ahead. On that basis, the NIO share price looks to be a good investment compared to the rest of the sector. 

But NIO is just one of a range of business is all fighting for market share. As well as its close competitors, such as Tesla, the company is also having to fight off competition from the likes of General Motors. The latter recently announced it’ll be boosting its global spending on electric and autonomous vehicles by 30% over the next few years. This will take the total spend to $35bn.

Meanwhile, Ford’s luxury Lincoln brand aims for half of all sales to be electric vehicles by 2026. 

Over in Europe, towards the end of last year, Volkswagen announced it plans to launch 70 all-electric models by 2030, with 20 of them already in production. Management has earmarked $86bn to hit this target. 

These are just some of the challengers vying for market share in the electric vehicle market. At this stage, it’s impossible to say which company will succeed.

Risk and reward 

There’s space for a range of vehicle manufacturers in the market. Still, to justify the high valuation on the NIO share price, the company will have to take significant market share. It’s unclear whether it’ll be able to do this. 

The company does have some competitive advantages, which should work in its favour. Its battery swapping technology is relatively unique. It also has the support of the Chinese government, which should help the enterprise conquer the Chinese market. 

Still, compared to the likes of Tesla and Volkswagen, the $78bn-cap is in its early stages of development. As such, I think there’s a high likelihood the NIO share price could suffer a fall if competition in the market restricts the company’s growth. With competitors pumping so much money into the market, this seems likely. 

Therefore, I wouldn’t buy the stock for my portfolio today. I’d rather invest in one of the market’s more established companies, such as Tesla.

Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended NIO Inc. and Tesla. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Businessman hand stacking up arrow on wooden block cubes
Investing Articles

Could Rolls-Royce shares double again in 2026?

Rolls-Royce shares are developing a curious habit of doubling in value inside a year. Could they pull it off once…

Read more »

Santa Clara offices of NVIDIA
Investing Articles

Could Greggs shares outperform Nvidia in the coming 5 years?

Comparing the performance of Greggs shares and Nvidia stock in recent years is night and day. But what might happen…

Read more »

Two female adult friends walking through the city streets at Christmas. They are talking and smiling as they do some Christmas shopping.
Investing Articles

2 insanely cheap shares to consider buying today

Harvey Jones loves going shopping for cheap shares and picks out two FTSE 100 stocks that are potentially undervalued despite…

Read more »

Businessman with tablet, waiting at the train station platform
Investing Articles

Retire early? I’ve just bought 2 new ‘moonshot’ growth stocks for my ISA

These growth stocks are extremely risky investments. However, taking a five-year view, Edward Sheldon sees enormous potential.

Read more »

Rear view image depicting a senior man in his 70s sitting on a bench leading down to the iconic Seven Sisters cliffs on the coastline of East Sussex, UK. The man is wearing casual clothing - blue denim jeans, a red checked shirt, navy blue gilet. The man is having a rest from hiking and his hiking pole is leaning up against the bench.
Investing Articles

How much should a 40-year old put into an empty SIPP to aim for a million by 60?

Over the next 20 years, someone could turn a SIPP with nothing in it today into a seven-figure retirement pot.…

Read more »

Mature black woman at home texting on her cell phone while sitting on the couch
Investing Articles

The 1 question everybody holding Rolls-Royce shares should ask themselves today

Every FTSE 100 investor is wondering where the Rolls-Royce share price goes next. But Harvey Jones highlights a different question…

Read more »

A senior man and his wife holding hands walking up a hill on a footpath looking away from the camera at the view. The fishing village of Polperro is behind them.
Investing Articles

Match the State Pension through buying dividend shares? Here’s what that might cost

If the State Pension seems like it might not go far enough, some forward planning today could potentially help ease…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Check out the worrying Tesco share price forecast

Harvey Jones questions whether the Tesco share price can push higher from here. A quick look at broker predictions only…

Read more »