I’ve been bullish on Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) shares for sometime. Last week the FTSE 100 stock released its 2020 full-year results and I can’t say I was too surprised with what the company reported.
I think most of the bad news is out in the open for Rolls-Royce shares. And from here, the company and share price are likely to recover so I’d buy the stock. But here’s what I drew from its recent results.
Big hit
2020 wasn’t a great year for Rolls-Royce. Revenue and profitability took a big hit. In fact, total sales were down 24% to £11.8bn. The company also suffered a £4bn loss over the year, which included a £1.7bn finance charge.
To be honest, I’m not shocked by the big negative numbers. Investors knew Rolls-Royce’s situation was struggling last year and understandably so given the pandemic. It’s no surprise to me that the Civil Aerospace division suffered the worst impact. Rolls-Royce’s largest business took a nose-dive because of Covid-19 travel restrictions. Its revenue just dried up, which was reflected in the results.
But I’ll stop with the negative news now and turn to the reasons why I’d buy Rolls-Royce shares.
Liquidity
Last year, Rolls-Royce took big steps to improve its liquidity position. It raised money through a rights issue and put further credit facilities in place.
So at the end of its 2020 financial year, Rolls-Royce had access to a grand total of £9bn in liquidity, including £3.5bn in cash and £5.5bn in undrawn credit. It expects a cash outflow of £2bn in 2021. This is weighted towards the first half of the year before Rolls-Royce expects cash flow to turn positive at some point in the second half of this year.
What I take from this is that the company has enough money to weather the storm in the short term. By my calculations, there’s a wiggle room of £7bn in liquidity provided that things continue as expected.
Power Systems & Defence divisions
The Power Systems and Defence divisions held up well last year. Both businesses accounted for 23% and 29% of Rolls-Royce 2020 full-year revenue respectively.
I’ve mentioned this before, but the Defence business provides Rolls-Royce with some revenue stability and visibility. So I’m not surprised, given that revenues took a hit in 2020, that the Defence division accounted for a larger portion of sales. In 2019, this same division only accounted for 20% of revenue.
What I think is pleasing to see is that the Defence business has 90% order cover for 2021. The company also predicts steady growth from this division into the medium term.
My view
Rolls-Royce is highly dependent on the lifting of travel restrictions and the vaccine rollout. Any delays or setbacks mean a further impact to revenue and profitability. This could also place pressure on liquidity and it may need to raise more money, which would be negative for the shares.
I recognise that the recovery from the pandemic will take time and I don’t think the dividend will resume any time soon. But I’m still optimistic about the prospects for Rolls-Royce shares. I think the worst is over for the company and hence I’d buy now.
