I think these Nick Train-backed stocks will rally back to form in 2021 and beyond

Paul Summers takes a closer look at the latest numbers from two contrarian stocks backed by UK fund manager Nick Train.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Star fund manager Nick Train has consistently beaten the market over many years. That’s why I think it’s always worth keeping an eye on the UK stocks in his portfolios. Two of these — consumer products company PZ Cussons (LSE: PZC) and fizzy drinks firm AG Barr (LSE: BAG) — reported to the market today.

Turnaround potential

Nick Train first purchased shares in Imperial Leather owner PZ Cussons (LSE: PZC) towards the end of 2019. The company’s valuation has climbed roughly 20% since. This morning’s interim results may not have added to the momentum but I do think they’re encouraging considering the troubles PZ has encountered in recent years. These include a challenging economic backdrop in Nigeria (a key growth market) and consumer uncertainty in Europe. 

As a result of the huge demand for hand wash and sanitiser, overall revenue rose 14.6% to just under £313m in the six months to the end of November. Reported pre-tax profit came in at £36.3m — 1.6% lower than over the same trading period in 2019 due to some one-off costs. 

For me, however, one of the big highlights of today’s statement was the reduction in net debt to £18.2m. Back in 2019, it stood at £137.7m. A further positive was the interim dividend being maintained. Yes, a gently rising dividend is preferable. However, I don’t think investors will be too disgruntled by the 2.67p per share cash return. Let’s not forget that many, far larger companies have had to halt their dividend payments entirely.

PZ is not a share for the impatient. In addition to uncertain trading conditions and higher costs, the new management team is also attempting to turn around key brands and simplify operations. This is a multi-year job and goes some way to explaining why the company remains a contrarian pick.

As a committed buy-and-hold investor, however, this is probably what attracted Nick Train. It also chimes with my own Foolish approach to investing, namely holding quality stocks for the long term. I don’t own a slice of PZ Cussons just yet, but today’s news does suggest to me that the worst could be over for those already invested. 

Ready to fizz?

Another one of Nick Train’s favourite UK shares (and mine) is IRN-BRU producer AG Barr (LSE: BAG).

Today, Barr said that revenue for the last financial year would now be somewhere in the region of £227m. That’s less than the £255.7m achieved in FY19/20. Nevertheless, it’s still “marginally ahead” of what the company had expected. Positively, the beverage-maker also thinks pre-tax profit will be higher than analysts had been predicting. 

So, why aren’t the shares rallying?“, you might ask. Similar to PZ Cussons, at least some of this must be down to Barr’s foggy earnings outlook now that we’re back in lockdown. Talk of restrictions lasting until the summer could also be keeping a lid on investors’ enthusiasm for the stock. 

Not that I — or probably Nick Train — am concerned. Barr has £50m in net cash on the balance sheet. This should be enough to see it through to the other side. 

At 21 times forecast FY22 earnings, the shares aren’t cheap. Then again, this could turn out to be a reasonable price to pay later in 2021. Once the hospitality sector reopens, I think AG Barr could get its fizz back. 

Paul Summers owns shares in AG Barr. The Motley Fool UK has recommended AG Barr and PZ Cussons. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Two white male workmen working on site at an oil rig
Investing Articles

As oil prices soar, is it time to buy Shell shares?

Christopher Ruane weighs some pros and cons of adding Shell shares to his ISA -- and explains why the oil…

Read more »

Man hanging in the balance over a log at seaside in Scotland
Investing Articles

How much do you need in an ISA for £6,751 passive income a year in 2046?

Let's say an investor wanted a passive income in 20 years' time. How much cash would need be built up…

Read more »

Smiling black woman showing e-ticket on smartphone to white male attendant at airport
Investing Articles

Why isn’t the IAG share price crashing?

Harvey Jones expected the IAG share price to take an absolute beating during current Middle East hostilities. So why is…

Read more »

piggy bank, searching with binoculars
Growth Shares

1 UK share I’d consider buying and 1 I’d run away from on this market dip

In light of the recent stock market dip, Jon Smith outlines the various potential outcomes for a couple of different…

Read more »

Burst your bubble thumbtack and balloon background
Investing Articles

AI may look like a bubble. But what about Rolls-Royce shares?

Bubble talk has been centred on some AI stocks lately. But Christopher Ruane sees risks to Rolls-Royce shares in the…

Read more »

Black woman using smartphone at home, watching stock charts.
Investing Articles

Will the BAE Systems share price soar 13% by this time next year?

BAE Systems' share price continues to surge as the Middle East crisis worsens. Royston Wild asks if the FTSE 100…

Read more »

Portrait of pensive bearded senior looking on screen of laptop sitting at table with coffee cup.
Investing Articles

Is this a once-in-a-decade chance to bag a 9.9% yield from Taylor Wimpey shares?

Taylor Wimpey shares have been hit by a volatile share price and cuts to the dividend. Harvey Jones holds the…

Read more »

Chalkboard representation of risk versus reward on a pair of scales
Investing Articles

Way up – or way down? This FTSE 250 share could go either way

Can this FTSE 250 share turn its fortunes around? Or has its day passed? Our writer looks at both sides…

Read more »