I think these Nick Train-backed stocks will rally back to form in 2021 and beyond

Paul Summers takes a closer look at the latest numbers from two contrarian stocks backed by UK fund manager Nick Train.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Star fund manager Nick Train has consistently beaten the market over many years. That’s why I think it’s always worth keeping an eye on the UK stocks in his portfolios. Two of these — consumer products company PZ Cussons (LSE: PZC) and fizzy drinks firm AG Barr (LSE: BAG) — reported to the market today.

Turnaround potential

Nick Train first purchased shares in Imperial Leather owner PZ Cussons (LSE: PZC) towards the end of 2019. The company’s valuation has climbed roughly 20% since. This morning’s interim results may not have added to the momentum but I do think they’re encouraging considering the troubles PZ has encountered in recent years. These include a challenging economic backdrop in Nigeria (a key growth market) and consumer uncertainty in Europe. 

As a result of the huge demand for hand wash and sanitiser, overall revenue rose 14.6% to just under £313m in the six months to the end of November. Reported pre-tax profit came in at £36.3m — 1.6% lower than over the same trading period in 2019 due to some one-off costs. 

For me, however, one of the big highlights of today’s statement was the reduction in net debt to £18.2m. Back in 2019, it stood at £137.7m. A further positive was the interim dividend being maintained. Yes, a gently rising dividend is preferable. However, I don’t think investors will be too disgruntled by the 2.67p per share cash return. Let’s not forget that many, far larger companies have had to halt their dividend payments entirely.

PZ is not a share for the impatient. In addition to uncertain trading conditions and higher costs, the new management team is also attempting to turn around key brands and simplify operations. This is a multi-year job and goes some way to explaining why the company remains a contrarian pick.

As a committed buy-and-hold investor, however, this is probably what attracted Nick Train. It also chimes with my own Foolish approach to investing, namely holding quality stocks for the long term. I don’t own a slice of PZ Cussons just yet, but today’s news does suggest to me that the worst could be over for those already invested. 

Ready to fizz?

Another one of Nick Train’s favourite UK shares (and mine) is IRN-BRU producer AG Barr (LSE: BAG).

Today, Barr said that revenue for the last financial year would now be somewhere in the region of £227m. That’s less than the £255.7m achieved in FY19/20. Nevertheless, it’s still “marginally ahead” of what the company had expected. Positively, the beverage-maker also thinks pre-tax profit will be higher than analysts had been predicting. 

So, why aren’t the shares rallying?“, you might ask. Similar to PZ Cussons, at least some of this must be down to Barr’s foggy earnings outlook now that we’re back in lockdown. Talk of restrictions lasting until the summer could also be keeping a lid on investors’ enthusiasm for the stock. 

Not that I — or probably Nick Train — am concerned. Barr has £50m in net cash on the balance sheet. This should be enough to see it through to the other side. 

At 21 times forecast FY22 earnings, the shares aren’t cheap. Then again, this could turn out to be a reasonable price to pay later in 2021. Once the hospitality sector reopens, I think AG Barr could get its fizz back. 

Paul Summers owns shares in AG Barr. The Motley Fool UK has recommended AG Barr and PZ Cussons. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

British flag, Big Ben, Houses of Parliament and British flag composition
Investing Articles

£20,000 invested in a Stocks and Shares ISA on 7 April is now worth…

The Stocks and Shares ISA is a proven wealth-building machine. But was one year ago a great time to be…

Read more »

Man hanging in the balance over a log at seaside in Scotland
Investing Articles

The stock market hasn’t crashed yet. Make these 3 moves before it does

If an investor is prepared for a stock market crash they can soften the blow, and more importantly, capitalise on…

Read more »

Investing Articles

£1,000 buys 300 shares in this red-hot UK gold stock with a P/E ratio of 3

This UK-listed gold stock is on fire at the moment amid the historic rally in precious metals. But it still…

Read more »

Warhammer World gathering
Investing Articles

Forget Pokémon cards! Dividend stocks are my top way to earn a second income

Earning a second income by buying and selling Pokémon cards looks like it could be a lot of fun. But…

Read more »

A young Asian woman holding up her index finger
Investing Articles

UK investors could soon get a once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy cheap FTSE shares

As global markets look increasingly wobbly, value investors are starting to identify exactly which FTSE shares they’ll scoop up in…

Read more »

Young Black man sat in front of laptop while wearing headphones
Investing Articles

Down 31%, here’s a FTSE 100 horror stock I’m avoiding on Friday 13th!

Rightmove's share price has collapsed during the last 12 months. Why doesn't this make the FTSE 100 stock a top…

Read more »

Hand is turning a dice and changes the direction of an arrow symbolizing that the value of an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is going up (or vice versa)
Investing Articles

3 ETFs to consider as the Middle East conflict escalates

Searching the stock market for assets to buy as the war rolls on? Royston Wild reveals three top exchange-traded funds…

Read more »

Two white male workmen working on site at an oil rig
Investing Articles

As oil prices soar, is it time to buy Shell shares?

Christopher Ruane weighs some pros and cons of adding Shell shares to his ISA -- and explains why the oil…

Read more »