Is the Synairgen share price about to plunge below 100p?

The Synairgen share price could fall further in the near term as investor sentiment towards the business fades, explains Rupert Hargreaves.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The Synairgen (LSE: SNG) share price has surged in value in the past two months. During the last two weeks of July, shares in the micro-cap jumped more than 440%.

That meteoric rise came after management announced positive results from the company’s Phase II drug trial for SNG001, which is, according to the business, effective in preventing coronavirus patients from requiring ventilation. 

Investor sentiment towards the company continued to improve throughout August. The Synairgen share price hit a high of 250p on 20 August as investors became increasingly excited about the firm’s prospects. 

However, over the past two weeks, shares in the drug discovery company have fallen back below 200p. Unfortunately, I think there’s a high chance the stock could fall further before it returns to its previous all-time high. Today I’m going to explain why. 

Synairgen share price outlook

Synairgen’s SNG001 drug could have huge potential, but I think the market has gotten ahead of itself here. It’s still in its early stages of development. The company needs to complete a Phase III trial before it can take the treatment to market. This could take some time to complete, and there’s no guarantee SNG001 will meet its trial’s goals. 

The number of drugs that successfully make it from the drawing board to the market is tiny. It’s less than 10% of all treatments. SNG001 has made it this far, but there’s no guarantee it will make it over the final hurdle.

What’s more, the market for coronavirus drugs is highly competitive. Estimates suggest there are over 1,000 different treatments and medications in the pipeline. In Europe alone, over 130 other products are being trialled and tested. So, even if SNG001 does pass its last test, Synairgen may have its work cut out to promote the treatment in a crowded field. 

Delays could weigh on the Synairgen share price.

Unfavourable odds

All of the above suggests Synairgen is going to face an uphill struggle to get its product to market. It seems as if the odds are stacked against the business. 

As such, it seems likely the share price could fall further in the near term. It could be many months before there’s any more positive news to report on SNG001. During that time, other companies with blockbuster treatments may draw investor attention away from the Synairgen share price. 

That said, while there’s no guarantee SNG001 will succeed, there’s no guarantee it won’t fail either. If the drug makes it to market, the company’s could see considerable revenue growth, which would be extremely positive news for the micro-cap. 

Therefore, I believe investors need to take a long-term outlook with the business and own it as part of a diversified portfolio. The stock could fall back to 100p in the near term as SNG001 is put through its paces. If it fails the last test, the company may run out of money. However, if the treatment is successful, the stock could be an attractive long-term investment. 

Owning the Synairgen share price as part of a diversified portfolio would allow investors to profit from any upside while limiting downside risk. 

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

After it crashed 25%, should I buy this former stock market darling in my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Harvey Jones has a big hole in his Stocks and Shares ISA that he is keen to fill. Should he…

Read more »

happy senior couple using a laptop in their living room to look at their financial budgets
Investing Articles

How’s the dividend forecast looking for Legal & General shares in 2025 and beyond?

As a shareholder, I like to keep track of the potential dividend returns I could make from my Legal &…

Read more »

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Could buying this stock with a $7bn market cap be like investing in Nvidia in 2010?

Where might the next Nvidia-type stock be lurking in today's market? Our writer takes a look at one candidate with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »