Are Greggs’ shares now an unmissable bargain?

With sales at 72% of 2019’s revenue, the business is bouncing back. I reckon Greggs’ shares could now be too cheap to ignore.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Bakery food-on-the-go retailer Greggs (LSE: GRG) owns a much-loved brand in the UK. But the FTSE 250company was one of those that closed almost all its operations in the lockdown. However, in today’s half-year results report, we can see the firm has been adapting well and operations are bouncing back. The directors said in the report that sales recently hit 72% of the level achieved during 2019. I reckon Greggs’ shares have a good chance of recovering too.

Why Greggs’ shares look set to recover

I think that’s encouraging news. The firm opted for a cautious approach to reopening its shop estate under social distancing restrictions. In early May it trialled “a small number” of shops to test its new social distancing measures and operational processes. Then, on 18 June, 800 shops opened to takeaway customers. Finally, from 2 July, the rest of the estate opened for takeaway – more than 2,000 outlets in total.

Chief executive Roger Whiteside reckons the company has demonstrated resilience and he puts that down to the “broad appeal” of the brand and the “widely distributed” shop estate. But I reckon the impressive crisis plan devised and executed by the management team has also been a big part of the rebound success so far.

The directors have reduced the product lines offered to concentrate on best-sellers. One of the challenges is that the stores tend to be small. And social distancing measures slow down customer throughput. It makes sense to concentrate on stuff that has a high probability of selling.

However, the tactic means around 25% of the staff remain on furlough, mainly in production operations. But the directors intend to put more employees back to work as sales pick up. And my expectation is that sales will continue to climb.

Close to profit breakeven

Right now, Greggs is trading at operating cash breakeven, which suggests the assault on the balance sheet has been halted. Net debt for the first six months of the year came in at just over £26m. But there were many expenses in the period. And the calculation includes temporary finance of £150m. The company arranged that using the joint HM Treasury and Bank of England Covid Corporate Financing Facility.

Looking ahead, the directors reckon the business will break even in terms of profit at 80% of 2019 sales – it’s almost there! Whiteside reckons Greggs is now “better placed to adapt to new conditions than ever before.”

There’s no doubt that the Greggs business has been financially stressed through the crisis. Indeed, the firm saved a few million by cancelling the interim dividend. But I think the company has a good chance of surviving and thriving in the long term based on the news in today’s update.

Meanwhile, at 1,406p, the share price has dipped a little today. But at these levels, it could prove to be an unmissable bargain. We’ll find out more from the company with the third-quarter update due on 29 September.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Kevin Godbold has no position in any share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Man writing 'now' having crossed out 'later', 'tomorrow' and 'next week'
Investing Articles

2 high-yield FTSE 250 shares I’d buy today — and 1 that I’d avoid

UK markets have felt some volatility after last week’s Budget and the FTSE 250 was no stranger to it. Our…

Read more »

Investing Articles

3 reasons the Rolls-Royce share price could soar over the next decade

Sustainable aviation fuel, narrow-body aircraft, and small nuclear reactors could all keep the Rolls-Royce share price climbing over the next…

Read more »

British flag, Big Ben, Houses of Parliament and British flag composition
Investing Articles

Here’s how much income I’d get if I invested my entire £20k ISA in cheap BT shares

BT shares are on the up but still cheap, while the FTSE 100 telecoms stock offers a good yield too.…

Read more »

Investing Articles

2 FTSE dividend shares yielding more than 6% with P/Es of less than 9!

Harvey Jones picks out two brilliant FTSE 100 dividend shares that yield more than 6% but are selling at strangely…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Up 105% in a year! Is this rocketing FTSE bank the perfect pick for my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Harvey Jones is drawing up a shortlist of stocks to purchase inside his Stocks and Shares ISA allowance. This FTSE…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Down 78%, is this once-hot AI growth stock set to explode like the Rolls-Royce share price?

Our writer asks if he should invest in Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) following the growth stock's massive recent decline.

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is it madness to buy Palantir shares after Q3 earnings?

Palantir stock's surging again after the firm's Q3 earnings report. But after a 150% gain, is it too late to…

Read more »

A pastel colored growing graph with rising rocket.
Investing Articles

£6,000 in savings? Here’s how I’d aim to turn that into £1,032 a month of passive income!

A small investment in high-dividend-paying stocks with the returns used to buy more shares can generate big passive income over…

Read more »