Ocado shares have had a great time this year! But are they still a buy?

Ocado shares have had a nice time this year. But are they still worth buying? Anna Sokolidou tries to find out.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Ocado (LSE:OCDO) shares have had a great time this year, indeed. Food delivery services are really popular now due to the pandemic. But is Ocado stock still a buy?

Ocado shares are up over 70%

As you can see from the graph below, the shares have gained more than 70% since March. It’s quite impressive. 

Ocado shares surged because the first half of 2020 was marked by a 27% rise in the company’s sales. But Ocado’s CEO doesn’t think it was a one-off. He even says that the move to online shopping is quite permanent. But is it really so? And how about the company’s fundamentals?

Successful company?

To start with, I think the food delivery industry still offers plenty of growth potential. The coronavirus pandemic made many of us reconsider our habits. And many consumers have discovered they like the idea of food being delivered directly to their doorsteps. So, even after the end of the pandemic many people might continue to order their essentials online.

It seems that Ocado has a great competitive position. The storage costs are quite low and the company’s business model is focused solely on food delivery. But still, a rising number of traditional supermarkets have started offering such services. A brilliant example is Tesco. So, keeping the old customers and getting the new ones is quite a challenge to Ocado.

Financial fundamentals

Let us consider the financial fundamentals of Ocado shares. Yesterday the group reported its earnings for the first half of 2020. If you have a quick look, it might seem like Ocado’s financial results have improved substantially. The loss before tax decreased from £147.4m in the first half of 2019 to just £40.6m in the first half of this year. But I wouldn’t be that optimistic. In fact, the £147.4m loss in the first half of last year seems to be a one-off. This is because it was due to the Andover fire that destroyed some of the company’s assets.

In spite of the unprecedented demand – that Ocado wasn’t even able to fully handle in the first several days of the lockdown – the company didn’t manage to break even. Instead, the company’s management invested heavily in international expansion. For example, it opened customer fulfilment centres in Toronto and Paris. The company also bought some innovative equipment, including robots, to help facilitate packaging and delivery. I realise that it’s important to do such things if a business wants to grow. I agree that investing in new technologies might reduce costs in the long run. But I don’t think it’s in the best interests of the shareholders to expand internationally while not being able to achieve profitability in the company’s core market.

The management also seems to be proud of the balance sheet improvement. Indeed, its cash holdings totalled £2.3bn as of the reporting date. But the main question is how Ocado achieved this. Well, Ocado borrowed heavily and issued even more shares. This means that the existing shareholders’ holdings got diluted and the company took on even more debt. 

Are Ocado shares a buy?

Although I think the industry the company operates in has a bright future, Ocado’s financials make me skeptical. I wouldn’t recommend a defensive investor to buy too many of Ocado shares. 

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Anna Sokolidou has no position in any of the shares mentioned in this article. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Tesco. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Man writing 'now' having crossed out 'later', 'tomorrow' and 'next week'
Investing Articles

2 high-yield FTSE 250 shares I’d buy today — and 1 that I’d avoid

UK markets have felt some volatility after last week’s Budget and the FTSE 250 was no stranger to it. Our…

Read more »

Investing Articles

3 reasons the Rolls-Royce share price could soar over the next decade

Sustainable aviation fuel, narrow-body aircraft, and small nuclear reactors could all keep the Rolls-Royce share price climbing over the next…

Read more »

British flag, Big Ben, Houses of Parliament and British flag composition
Investing Articles

Here’s how much income I’d get if I invested my entire £20k ISA in cheap BT shares

BT shares are on the up but still cheap, while the FTSE 100 telecoms stock offers a good yield too.…

Read more »

Investing Articles

2 FTSE dividend shares yielding more than 6% with P/Es of less than 9!

Harvey Jones picks out two brilliant FTSE 100 dividend shares that yield more than 6% but are selling at strangely…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Up 105% in a year! Is this rocketing FTSE bank the perfect pick for my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Harvey Jones is drawing up a shortlist of stocks to purchase inside his Stocks and Shares ISA allowance. This FTSE…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Down 78%, is this once-hot AI growth stock set to explode like the Rolls-Royce share price?

Our writer asks if he should invest in Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) following the growth stock's massive recent decline.

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is it madness to buy Palantir shares after Q3 earnings?

Palantir stock's surging again after the firm's Q3 earnings report. But after a 150% gain, is it too late to…

Read more »

A pastel colored growing graph with rising rocket.
Investing Articles

£6,000 in savings? Here’s how I’d aim to turn that into £1,032 a month of passive income!

A small investment in high-dividend-paying stocks with the returns used to buy more shares can generate big passive income over…

Read more »