What I think the New Year might have in store for the Tesco share price

As 2020 approaches, is now a good time to invest in Tesco shares?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

A lot of people will be making the most of Tesco (LSE: TSCO) in the next week or two. Whether it is food for Christmas day or gifts for the family, the supermarket giant offers it all. But in coming to the end of one year and looking forward to the next, I can’t help but wonder what 2020 may have in store for Tesco shares.

Asian business

The most recent news worth looking at is that Tesco is considering selling its businesses in Malaysia and Thailand following “inbound interest” from an unnamed investor. This is perhaps a good-news, bad-news scenario. If sold it is likely to bring in a large lump sum of cash, but Tesco’s Asian business is a profitable unit so its loss could hit the bottom line in future.

Tesco’s Thai and Malay businesses collectively account for about 10% of the supermarket’s sales, and with an operating margin above 6% are some of the most profitable units (the UK and Irish arm have a margin of just half this). This would suggest that any offer would have to be very large to be tempting.

Having already sold its Japanese business in 2012, and having pulled back from the US in 2013, any sale here will continue the trend of consolidating its position after what some now say was overexpansion.

It also comes, of course, as online shopping continues to grow as the primary grocery shop for many people – taking the money from an Asian sale to use elsewhere may just be a good move.

Amazon Prime model…kind of

One of the first UK companies to offer a loyalty card scheme, Tesco relaunched its Clubcard reward system in November with a subscription-based option. Customers can now choose to pay £7.99 a month in return for a range of discounts across Tesco products, banking, and mobile phone services.

To some extent this mirrors Amazon’s Prime model, where a subscription effectively gets you better service and faster deliveries than the free option. This may bring in some money for Tesco, but I can’t help but suspect the average customer won’t really feel it is worth it. That said, if the subscription discounts include petrol and diesel, there certainly could be many drivers that find the £8 per month price tag good value.

The value of loyalty schemes for a company has always been questioned – there is a strong argument, I believe, to suggest you are simply giving away money to customers who were already going to shop with you.

Dividends

One last area to consider is dividends. The major thing that has always put me off Tesco as an investment is the poor returns it offers to investors – a current dividend yield of about 2.6%. For such a large, blue-chip company I think this is very poor (Sainsbury’s currently offers 4.9%).

That said, some analysts are now expecting the company to raise dividends in 2020 to somewhere near the 4.5% region. For me, this would certainly help make the investment case. I don’t see Tesco shares as set to be a major grower anytime soon, but I think the company’s prospects certainly look good enough to make it a stable investment.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Karl has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Tesco. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

The flag of the United States of America flying in front of the Capitol building
Investing Articles

2 UK shares that could rise if Trump wins the Presidential election

These UK shares are among the FTSE 100's most popular stocks. And they could rise in value if Donald Trump…

Read more »

Closeup ruffled American flag representing US stocks and shares
Investing Articles

2 UK stocks that could rise if Harris wins the Presidential election

Royston Wild believes these UK stocks could receive a bump if Kalama Harris wins the Presidency, giving their share prices…

Read more »

Investing Articles

After a 96% plunge, is buying more Aston Martin shares throwing good money after bad?

Just two weeks after buying Aston Martin shares Harvey Jones found himself nursing a painful loss. Yet after recent news…

Read more »

Investing Articles

After crashing 45% in October, should I buy this FTSE 250 share for my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Roland Head explains why he’s tempted to add this risky FTSE 250 turnaround share to his Stocks and Shares ISA…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Could I use a stock market crash to turn £20k into half a mil in just over a decade?

A stock market crash might sound terrifying to some but it can also present a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to accumulate generational…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Recently released: October’s small-cap stock recommendation [PREMIUM PICKS]

We believe the UK small-cap market offers a myriad of opportunities across a wide range of different businesses and industries.

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s how a Stocks and Shares ISA and Lifetime ISA could supercharge my wealth!

Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) can help UK share investors take their earnings to the next level. And their importance is…

Read more »

A person holding onto a fan of twenty pound notes
Investing Articles

A high-yield dividend ETF and an investment trust to consider this November!

Investors wanting to boost their passive income could benefit from investigating these high-yield funds and trusts, says Royston Wild.

Read more »