Why I think the easyJet share price could gain from the Thomas Cook collapse

Shares in easyJet (LON: EZJ) pick up as the firm eyes the package holiday market, but I think there’s a need for caution.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

The failure of Thomas Cook earlier this year left a hole on the package holidays business, and it’s one that easyJet (LSE: EZJ) is hoping to fill.

And in what sounds like it might be an even more ambitious goal, easyJet says it intends “to become the world’s first major airline to operate net-zero carbon flights by offsetting the carbon emissions from the fuel used on the flights.”

Full-year results were in line with expectations, after revenue to 30 September came in at £6,385m, 8.3% ahead of 2018’s £5,898m. And though headline pre-tax profit dropped 26% from last year’s £578m to £427m, it was in the upper half of the airline’s guidance range of £420m to £430m.

Lowered costs

The airline has been cutting costs too, with savings from its cost and efficiency programme reaching £139m, significantly ahead of last year’s £107m. That’s good, but whenever I read of a company engaging in cost saving plans, I can’t help wondering why that isn’t just the norm.

At constant currency and excluding fuel, headline cost per seat was reduced by a modest 0.8% to £43.11. Including fuel and currency movements, however, that cost per seat rose by 1.5% to £56.74. These might sound like minor differences, but in the cut-throat world of cut-price airlines, a few pennies saved per seat can make a meaningful difference to bottom line earnings and to the cash available for dividends.

And speaking of dividends, this year’s amounts to 43.9p per share, down from the 58.6p paid last year, but close enough to expectations. On the current share price, that’s a yield of 3.3% – not one of the top dividend champions, but comfortably covered by headline earnings per share of 88.7p.

New plans

Carbon offsetting is estimated to cost around £25m, and involves paying for various processes that take carbon dioxide out of the air – but it doesn’t actually reduce the overall net emissions. As such, I don’t see it as anything to get too excited about, though easyJet did say it’s just an interim measure and that it will push for the “development of sustainable fuel and electric flying.

Electric aviation is a long way away, however, and I really don’t think it need figure in the thinking of investors today. Whether the carbon offsetting will justify its cost and how competitors will react is something we’ll have to wait and see.

The move into the package holidays business seems to me to offer significantly bigger tangible gains. And more immediate ones too, as as easyJet holidays is set to launch in the UK before Christmas, offering beach and city breaks. The potential looks to be there, as easyJet says currently around 20m people book flights per year with it, but only around 500,000 book accommodation.

Tempting buy?

The drift away from high street travel agents for booking holidays also seems to fit with easyJet’s new package business, and it has the logistics and infrastructure to manage the move.

Would I buy easyJet? Easy answer, no. I like these new moves, but the airline business is horribly competitive and hostage to the price of fuel. Though easyJet is possibly the best in the business, its shares are still down 20% over the past five years, and that’s all I need to know.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Alan Oscroft has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Man writing 'now' having crossed out 'later', 'tomorrow' and 'next week'
Investing Articles

After crashing 50% this FTSE value stock looks filthy cheap with a P/E of just 9.1%

Harvey Jones has some unfinished business with this FTSE 100 value stock, which he reckons has been harshly treated by…

Read more »

Chalkboard representation of risk versus reward on a pair of scales
Investing For Beginners

Up 40% in a month, what’s going on with the Burberry share price?

Jon Smith points out two key catalysts for the move higher in the Burberry share price, but questions whether anything…

Read more »

Warren Buffett at a Berkshire Hathaway AGM
Investing Articles

Warren Buffett just invested in a well-known pizza company that operates in the UK

Edward Sheldon's been analysing Warren Buffett’s latest trades. Here’s a look at one stock he just sold and one he’s…

Read more »

Investing Articles

I found two small-cap UK tech shares with bargain-basement valuations

These UK shares look extremely undervalued to me on several metrics with the added benefit of strong growth potential in…

Read more »

Arrow symbol glowing amid black arrow symbols on black background.
Investing Articles

Anywhere under £7.30, IAG’s share price looks cheap to me

IAG’s share price tumbled during the Covid years but has now bounced back with strong recent results, leaving the stock…

Read more »

Investing Articles

1 ISA mistake to avoid

This commonly overlooked investing mistake can cost ISA investors tens of thousands of pounds over time. Here's how I'd try…

Read more »

Investing Articles

After plunging 50% this stock’s ultra-high 6.8% yield offers a stunning second income!

Harvey Jones is captivated by the sky-high second income offered by this FTSE 100 dividend stock. Should he be equally…

Read more »

Passive and Active: text from letters of the wooden alphabet on a green chalk board
Investing Articles

Why I prefer the FTSE 100 over the S&P 500 for passive income

It’s been a good year for both the Footsie and the S&P 500. But Mark Hartley explains why he’d rather…

Read more »