Is the Burford Capital share price a bargain after crashing 60%?

Is it worth trying to catch falling knife Burford Capital Limited (LON: BUR) today?

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Shares in litigation finance provider Burford Capital (LSE: BUR) are plunging today after US research firm Muddy Waters published a damning report on the business. 

The report accuses Burford’s management of manipulating the figures, misleading investors and colluding with Neil Woodford’s protégé Mark Barnett to juice the returns on its litigation investments. Muddy Waters concludes that, based on its research, the firm is facing liquidity problems and could be insolvent.

A tower of cards 

Yesterday, Muddy Waters revealed that it was planning to publish a short report on a UK-listed business this morning. Rumours quickly spread through the market that the target was Burford and the stock started to slide. 

Management decided to preempt the report by issuing their own statement this morning. In the statement, the company declared “Burford’s cash position and access to liquidity is strong” and “our litigation finance returns rose to their highest-ever levels as of 30 June 2019.

Burford’s update also noted that the company “uses the same IFRS accounting that is used widely across the financial services industry and has used consistent accounting policies for many years.” 

Muddy Waters disputes all of these claims. In its report, the research outfit claims that Burford is “a poor business masquerading as a great one,” and the firm “woos” investors with “non-IFRS metrics,” which are “meaningless.” The report goes on to state:

“We have identified seven techniques through which Burford manipulates its metrics to create what we believe is an egregiously misleading picture of its investment returns. These manipulations usually involve Burford either giving itself credit for a recovery when one is uncertain (or even highly unlikely) or ignoring cases that are likely to be failures.”

Furthermore, Muddy Waters has reviewed Burford’s published financial metrics and believes it is “financially fragile.” The company’s “operating expenses, financing costs, debt, and funding commitments,” put the business at “a high risk of a liquidity crunch,” it states. The report goes on to speculate it is possible the enterprise is already insolvent.

Time to catch a falling knife?

Considering all of the above, it is no surprise that investors have rushed to sell Burford following the report from Muddy Waters. If the allegations turn out to be correct, then the stock could be worth nothing. 

At this stage, we do not know if there is any truth to these allegations of insolvency and accounting manipulation. However, Muddy Waters has presented compelling evidence suggesting that Burford has been manipulating recovery figures, in particular. This is enough, in my opinion, to sell the shares.

The problem is, as investors, we have only have a limited view of a company’s financials and operating performance. We have no choice but to take what management says at face value. If we cannot trust management, then that is a big red flag in my mind. With this being the case, I think Burford needs to prove that the accusations are incorrect before trust is restored and it is better for investors to err on the side of caution here. 

All in all, I think it is best to avoid the shares even though they might look undervalued after falling 60% in two days.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

After it crashed 25%, should I buy this former stock market darling in my Stocks and Shares ISA?

Harvey Jones has a big hole in his Stocks and Shares ISA that he is keen to fill. Should he…

Read more »

happy senior couple using a laptop in their living room to look at their financial budgets
Investing Articles

How’s the dividend forecast looking for Legal & General shares in 2025 and beyond?

As a shareholder, I like to keep track of the potential dividend returns I could make from my Legal &…

Read more »

artificial intelligence investing algorithms
Investing Articles

Could buying this stock with a $7bn market cap be like investing in Nvidia in 2010?

Where might the next Nvidia-type stock be lurking in today's market? Our writer takes a look at one candidate with…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »