The State Pension forecast: what you need to know

The State Pension is changing over the next few decades. Here’s what you need to know to avoid hardship.

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

According to a recent survey, approximately 50% of future retirees are unsure of how pensions work, how much money they will receive in retirement, and how often. What’s more, nearly two-thirds of respondents said they didn’t know at what age they would be able to access their pension pot.

When asked if they thought the current full basic UK State Pension was enough to live off, almost 90% of respondents said they didn’t think so. Some 46% also said they didn’t think this amount would be enough to cover their monthly outgoings.

Fortunately, the State Pension is forecast to increase in the years ahead. But it’s only set to increase in line with the cost of living. The State Pension age is also going to increase over the next few decades. At the time of writing, that age is gradually increasing for men and women and will reach 67 by 2028.

Guaranteed growth

The State Pension increases every year under the triple-lock guarantee. This ensures it will rise every year by inflation, by 2.5% or average earnings, whichever is higher.

On that basis, it’s guaranteed to increase by at least 2.5% every year for the foreseeable future. At the beginning of April, the New State Pension increase by 2.6% to £168.60 for the 2019/20 tax year. The old Basic State Pension is £129.20 per week. 

Based on these figures, according to my calculations, assuming the government doesn’t change the triple-lock in 10 years, the New State Pension will be £215.82 a week. By 2039, pensioners will be entitled to £276.27 a week, according to my numbers.

Start saving for the future

If you are one of the people who doesn’t think this level will be enough to cover your expenses in retirement, then now’s the time to take action. Your best option is to start saving yourself to prepare for the future. Luckily, there are plenty of different options available to savers today. Almost all of them have tax benefits.

My favourite is the Self Invested Personal Pension (SIPP). Not only are SIPP funds protected from capital gains and income tax, but the government also gives you a tax bonus for investing. For basic rate taxpayers, every £80 you contribute, the government will provide you with an extra £20, helping you kickstart your savings journey.

How much you need to contribute in total really depends on the quality of life you want in retirement. For an average annual income of £25,000 a year after retirement (excluding State Pension income) I calculate you will need to put away £625,000. That might seem like a lot, but I calculate a deposit a £360 a month (£450 including the government top-up for 30 years) invested in a low-cost FTSE 100 tracker (with an average annual return of 8%) would get you to this target.

If you’re happy taking on more risk, you could also buy a FTSE 250 tracker, or a basket of dividend stocks such as BP, Vodafone and BT.

So, if you’re worried about what the future holds for your State Pension, the best way to prevent any negative surprises is to start saving and investing your money today.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Rupert Hargreaves owns no share mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Retirement Articles

Young female analyst working at her desk in the office
Investing Articles

Here’s how I’d target a £23k second income with £300 a month

If I was building a shares portfolio today, here's how I'd go about it. With these strategies I stand a…

Read more »

Investing Articles

How I’d invest my first £1,000 in a SIPP

Investing the first £1,000 in an SIPP can be a daunting process, especially for new investors. Zaven Boyrazian explains what…

Read more »

Storytelling image of a multiethnic senior couple in love - Elderly married couple dating outdoors, love emotions and feelings
Investing Articles

Worried about tax raids? Here’s how I’m targeting a £44,526 passive income with shares

Investing in a Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) or Individual Savings Account (ISA) can supercharge one's passive income, says Royston Wild.

Read more »

Investing Articles

How I’d invest within a SIPP to target a 7% dividend yield

Zaven Boyrazian explains the steps he’d take to target a high-yield, income-generating SIPP for 2024 and beyond by investing in…

Read more »

Investing Articles

No pension at 50? Here’s my SIPP investment plan to target £16k a year in passive income!

With disciplined saving, a solid investment plan and the tax benefits of a SIPP, it’s possible to turbocharge pension growth…

Read more »

Young woman holding up three fingers
Investing Articles

These 3 investing steps could make me an £11,680 passive income!

If I was starting out on my investing journey, here's how I'd try to build a robust passive income with…

Read more »

The words "what's your plan for retirement" written on chalkboard on pavement somewhere in London
Investing Articles

Small SIPP at 55? I’d take these steps to boost my retirement savings

With a consistent savings plan, sound strategy, and some wonderful tax relief in a SIPP, it’s possible to massively grow…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Value, growth and dividends! 3 ETFs I’d buy in a Stocks and Shares ISA

Royston Wild believes these UK-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could help him create a winning Stocks and Shares ISA.

Read more »