Why I think the Diageo share price will continue to beat the FTSE 100

I’m optimistic about the prospects for the Diageo plc (LON: DGE) share price after it makes a strong start to 2019 versus the FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX).

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Even though the FTSE 100 has made a strong start to 2019, the Diageo (LSE: DGE) share price has been able to outperform the top index. The alcoholic beverages company has risen by 14%, while the wider index is up 11%.

Looking ahead, there could be further outperformance. The company appears to have a solid position within its key markets, while its strategy seems to be sound. Alongside another growth stock that released an update on Monday, Diageo could offer investment appeal over the long run.

Profit growth potential

The other company in question is supplier of complementary software and managed services Castleton Technology (LSE: CTP). Its trading update for the 2019 financial year showed results are expected to be in line with previous guidance. Revenue is expected to be at least £26.3m, while adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) is due to be at least £6.3m. This represents encouraging organic growth, with the company also expected to have reduced net debt versus the previous year.

Castleton Technology is forecast to post a rise in earnings of 16% in the current year. This suggests recent acquisitions, as well as organic growth, are helping to improve its financial performance. Even though it has a bright financial future, the stock trades on a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of just 1.1, which suggests it may offer growth at a reasonable price. While its a relatively risky smaller company, it could be worth a closer look for long-term investors.

Improving outlook

As mentioned, the prospects for Diageo continue to be relatively upbeat. The company remains popular among investors even though it has a high valuation compared to many of its FTSE 100 index peers. For example, it currently trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 25, which suggests its margin of safety may be relatively narrow.

However, with Diageo enjoying significant size and scale, it may not require a wide margin of safety in order to merit investment. The company appears to have a strong growth outlook, with a rationalisation of its asset base potentially allowing it to invest more heavily in its core brands. This may strengthen its competitive position at a time when the growth potential in emerging markets is high.

Although consumer goods stocks such as Diageo have generally enjoyed a strong decade of performance since the financial crisis, that trend could continue over the long run. The growth prospects for major emerging economies such as China and India are high, with wealth and wage levels forecast to increase significantly over the next few years. With the company having a strong position in such markets, as well as many others across the developing world, it could enjoy a continued period of improving share price performance relative to the wider FTSE 100.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Peter Stephens owns shares of Diageo. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Diageo. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

2 FTSE shares I won’t touch with a bargepole in 2025

The FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250 have some quality stocks. But there are others that Stephen Wright thinks he…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Could this be the FTSE 100’s best bargain for 2025?

The FTSE 100 is full of cheap stocks but there’s one in particular that our writer believes has the potential…

Read more »

Investing Articles

No Santa rally? As the UK stock market plunges 3%, I’m hunting for bargains

Global stock markets are in turmoil as Christmas approaches but our writer is keen to grab some bargains while prices…

Read more »

Petrochemical engineer working at night with digital tablet inside oil and gas refinery plant
Investing Articles

BP share price to surge by 70% in 12 months!? How realistic is that forecast?

Brand new analyst forecasts predict that the BP share price could rise considerably next year! Should investors consider buying this…

Read more »

Investing Articles

BT share price to double in 2025!? Here are the most up-to-date forecasts

The BT share price is up more than 40% over the last eight months with some analysts predicting it could…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Rolls-Royce share price to hit 850p!? Here are the latest expert projections

Analysts predict the Rolls-Royce share price could surge by another 50% in the next 12 months as free cash flow…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Will NatWest shares beat the FTSE 100 again in 2025? Here’s what the charts say

NatWest shares have left rivals Lloyds and Barclays in the dust in 2024. Stephen Wright looks at whether the stock's…

Read more »

Man putting his card into an ATM machine while his son sits in a stroller beside him.
Investing Articles

Could the Lloyds share price crash in 2025?

Lloyds is facing a financial scandal potentially landing the bank with a massive customer compensation bill that could send its…

Read more »