The 88E share price is down 65% since June! Will it rebound in 2019?

It’s been a disappointing year for 88 Energy Ltd (LON:88E) shareholders. Roland Head asks if things are about to improve.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

It’s been a disappointing year for US oil explorer 88 Energy (LSE: 88E), which operates 301,000 acres of the Project Icewine prospect on the North Slope of Alaska.

The firm’s shares have fallen by about 65% since June, after flow testing the Icewine #2 well failed to produce any oil. 

The company is actively searching for a ‘farm-out’ partner to share the costs of continuing to drill and evaluate the Icewine acreage. The deadline for bids was the end of 2018, but in an update today the firm said this had been extended into the New Year.

Multiple “high-quality” companies are said to be examining the Icewine data while considering a bid. But the falling price of oil probably isn’t helping. A deal is now being targeted during the first quarter of 2019, so that there’s still enough time to schedule “the drilling of multiple wells” during the 2020 summer season.

A big worry

As a pure explorer, 88 Energy doesn’t have any oil or gas production or any other source of revenue. This means it relies on cash from shareholders and loans to fund its operations.

Unfortunately, investors are becoming less willing to supply fresh cash. In October, an attempt to raise A$14.33m (£7.96m) from existing shareholders only yielded A$3.6m.

In November, the firm tried again, hoping to raise £5.9m from by selling new shares to investors through brokers. This raised £5.56m before costs — more successful, but still short of the firm’s target.

My verdict

88 Energy does have a large and prospective acreage. The firm could still make a big, valuable oil discovery. But this is very much a gamble, in my view.

Financing seems to be getting harder to find and interest costs mounting on the group’s loans. This stock is much too speculative for me.

I’d buy this instead

Although I do invest in small oil companies, I have a rule of only investing in firms which have commercial reserves and ongoing production. What I look for are companies that can fund their exploration activities entirely from their own oil and gas sales.

This may seem dull and boring, but it helps protect me from the kinds of losses often suffered by shareholders in speculative stocks such as 88 Energy.

One of my top picks in the small-cap oil sector at the moment is SOCO International (LSE: SIA), which is one of the largest producers in Vietnam. This company is still run by founder Ed Storey, who has a 4.2% shareholding in the firm.

A bid target?

Mr Storey is now in his 70s. I wouldn’t be surprised if he looked for a takeover bid or a merger at some point in the next few years, to allow him to step back from the business.

In the meantime, SOCO is expanding its operations into Egypt via the acquisition of Merlon. This deal should add at least 6,500 barrels of oil per day to the group’s production and generate strong free cash flow, thanks operating costs of just $6 per barrel.

Analysts expect SOCO’s earnings to take a step up next year, doubling to $0.14 per share. This puts the stock on a 2019 forecast price/earnings ratio of just 6.3. This looks good value to me, especially as it’s paired with a dividend yield of nearly 7%.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Roland Head has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

Is GSK a bargain now the share price is near 1,333p?

Biopharma company GSK looks like a decent stock to consider for the long term, so is today's lower share price…

Read more »

Snowing on Jubilee Gardens in London at dusk
Investing Articles

Could December be a great month to buy UK shares?

Christopher Ruane sees some possible reasons to look for shares to buy in December -- but he'll be using the…

Read more »

Young mixed-race couple sat on the beach looking out over the sea
Investing Articles

Sticking to FTSE shares, I’d still aim for a £1,000 monthly passive income like this!

By investing in blue-chip FTSE shares with proven business models, our writer hopes he can build sizeable passive income streams…

Read more »

Growth Shares

BT shares? I think there are much better UK stocks for the long term

Over the long term, many UK stocks have performed much better than BT. Here’s a look at two companies that…

Read more »

British Pennies on a Pound Note
Investing Articles

After a 540% rise, could this penny share keep going?

This penny share has seen mixed fortunes in recent years. Our writer looks ahead to some potentially exciting developments in…

Read more »

Silhouette of a bull standing on top of a landscape with the sun setting behind it
Investing Articles

Is the S&P 500 going to 10,000 by 2030? This expert thinks so

One stock market strategist sees animal spirits taking hold and driving the S&P 500 index even higher by the end…

Read more »

Investing Articles

I’m expecting my Phoenix Group shares to give me a total return of 25% in 2025!

Phoenix Group shares have had a difficult few months but that doesn't worry Harvey Jones. He loves their 10%+ yield…

Read more »

Hand of person putting wood cube block with word VALUE on wooden table
Investing Articles

14.5bn reasons why I think the Legal & General share price is at least 11% undervalued

According to our writer, the Legal & General share price doesn’t appear to reflect the underlying profitability of the business. 

Read more »