In the world of stocks, it’s not infrequent for some of one year’s biggest fallers to be among the next year’s biggest winners (and vice versa). With this in mind, I’m looking at the top FTSE 100 flops of 2017 — shares that could make stunning recoveries in 2018.
The tanked ten
The Footsie’s 10 worst performers over the last 12 months (as I’m writing) are shown in the table below.
| Sector | Recent share price (p) | 12-month fall (%) | |
| Centrica | Utility | 139 | 40 |
| BT | Telco/media | 269 | 27 |
| WPP | Media | 1,349 | 25 |
| Mediclinic | Health | 584 | 23 |
| ITV (LSE: ITV) | Media | 165 | 17 |
| SSE | Utility | 1,299 | 15 |
| Shire (LSE: SHP) | Health | 3,899 | 15 |
| GlaxoSmithKline | Health | 1,313 | 15 |
| Next | Retail | 4,298 | 13 |
| M&S | Retail | 310 | 13 |
As you can see, there’s a degree of sector concentration. However, for at least some of these stocks, company-specific issues have compounded the market’s sector concerns. That’s certainly the case with the two biggest fallers, Centrica and BT.
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My Foolish friend Harvey Jones has recently written an in-depth article on Centrica and its recovery prospects and an equally interesting piece on BT’s troubles and turnaround potential. However, my eyes are drawn to a couple of stocks a little lower down the losers list.
Cheap telly
ITV has been very much out of favour with investors. The 17% fall in its shares over the last 12 months is hefty enough but extend the timeframe to 24 months and the decline is 40%.
The market is concerned by the structural threat to the business posed by digital media, as well as its UK focus at this transitory time of Brexit uncertainty. However, the company is highly cash generative, with a strong record of returning surplus cash to shareholders, including though special dividends.
I believe the fall in its shares has more than discounted the challenges faced by ITV. As such, the stock looks very buyable to me on a current-year forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.7, with a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
World leader
The healthcare sector is one area of the high-flying market where there remain some good value growth stocks. Pharma group Shire, which has laboured under negative investor sentiment since its $32bn acquisition of US company Baxalta last year, is one such stock.
This large acquisition has increased risk and also debt. However, integration is well advanced and I believe Shire’s enhanced position as the world leader in an attractive market (rare diseases) isn’t adequately reflected in its share price.
The company doesn’t pay much of a dividend at this stage (the prospective yield is just 0.7%) but it’s the potential for the share price to rise strongly that leads me to rate the stock a ‘buy’. This year’s forecast P/E is just 10.3 and I believe we could see a significant re-rating in 2018.
Others to consider
Some Footsie shares fell so heavily during 2017 that the companies were demoted from the elite index to the second-tier FTSE 250. If you’re looking for further potential recovery stocks to investigate, the following all fell far enough to drop clean out of the FTSE 100: Babcock International, Capita, ConvaTec, Dixons Carphone, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Merlin Entertainments, Provident Financial and Royal Mail.
