June’s decision to exit the referendum has proved a nightmare for Dixons Carphone’s (LSE: DC) share price. The electronics store was already trading at a discount to levels at the start of 2016, but the referendum result has really put the boot in — it’s currently down 36% since the end of last year.
The retailer has bounced from July’s record lows, however, as bargain hunters have piled in. And there is certainly some logic behind this — Dixons Carphone is expected to generate earnings expansion of 4% and 6% in the years to April 2017 and 2018, respectively, creating corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5 times and 9.9 times. The FTSE 100 forward average stands closer to 15 times.
Dividend yields are less inspiring, however, but figures of 3.2% for 2016 and 3.5% for next year are far from shoddy.
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Regardless of Dixons Carphone’s attractive ‘paper’ valuations, I think there is plenty of reason to expect earnings estimates to miss their targets in the near-term and beyond.
The company gave investors reason for optimism in September, advising that like-for-like sales rose 4% during May-July. But sales are in danger of slumping further down the line as difficult economic conditions, including rising inflation, crimp investor appetite for big ticket items like fridges and televisions.
And Dixons Carphone also faces increased margin pressure as diving sterling values prompt electronics manufacturers to hike prices. Apple raised the ticket value of its MacBook last month, firing the starting gun for other suppliers to also hike costs.
I believe that the risks far outweigh the possible rewards at Dixons Carphone.
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But the retailer isn’t the only FTSE 100 stock in danger of enduring further share price weakness. Indeed, I reckon the negative impact of June’s referendum on advertising budgets also leaves ITV (LSE: ITV) in danger of fresh share price weakness — the business has already lost 40% of its value in the year to date.
Having said that, ITV’s long-term earnings outlook is much more robust than that of Dixons Carphone, in my opinion. And I reckon now represents a great time to latch onto the broadcasting behemoth.
Earnings are expected to more-or-less flatline through to the close of 2017. Still, current forecasts create P/E ratings of just 10 times and 10.1 times for 2016 and 2017, respectively. And dividend yields of 4.5% for this year and 5% for 2017 crush the FTSE 100 average yield of 3.5%.
Despite the impact of moderating advertiser appetite, I think ITV’s long-term investment case remains robust. Revenues from the firm’s ITV Studios production arm continue to sing — these exploded 31% during January-June, to £651m — and international expansion promises to keep sales on an upward keel.
And I am backing ITV’s ability to consistently outperform the wider television advertising market to stop earnings falling off a cliff in the medium term. I reckon the company’s proven expertise across media channels gives plenty of reason for investors to remain optimistic.
