Today, I’m looking at whether three FTSE 100 blue chips in the Brexit-bashed sectors of commercial property, housebuilding and banking are bargain buys.
British Land
British Land (LSE: BLND) reported a solid first quarter to 30 June in a trading update this morning, and also said it had exchanged on 17 long-term retail leases since the EU referendum. However, chief executive Chris Grigg added that it’s too early to properly assess the impact of the referendum, and that “we do expect some occupiers and investors to take a more cautious approach”.
The company is financially robust, helped by £499m of non-core disposals exchanged since the year-end, speculative development commitments representing just 4% of the portfolio and no requirement to refinance for four years based on current commitments.
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At its annual results in May, British Land guided on a 29.2p dividend for the year to March 2017 (an increase of 3%), and today announced an on-target Q1 payout of 7.3p. With the shares down 18% since the referendum, the dividend yield has risen to 4.6%, which I reckon is an attractive proposition for a strong company well-positioned to weather turbulence in the commercial property market.
Barratt Developments
Housebuilder Barratt Developments (LSE: BDEV) has also reported strong numbers recently. In a trading update last week, ahead of results for the year ended 30 June, the company said it expects to report a 5.3% increase in completions and a 20% rise in pre-tax profit.
Again, though, we had the post-Brexit refrain: “It is too early to say what the impact of the uncertainty facing the UK economy will be”. With Reuters reporting chief executive David Thomas saying the firm is looking at how far it should slow down its build programmes and whether it will or won’t bid on land coming to the market, it appears that profit and return on capital employed may be peaking.
Having said that, government support, good mortgage availability and a chronic undersupply of new homes are all positives for Barratt. Furthermore, with net cash of £590m and a 3.4 year existing land bank, the company could continue to deliver for shareholders. And that includes a prospective dividend yield of over 7%, following a near-30% fall in the shares since the referendum.
Royal Bank of Scotland
I’m rather less optimistic about the prospects for Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS). This was one of my stocks to avoid for 2016 when the shares were trading at 300p on 13.5 times this year’s forecast earnings. I said I’d be wanting a single-digit earnings multiple or an end to the persistent trend of earnings downgrades before considering it worthy of consideration.
The shares have fallen 25% since the Brexit vote and close to 40% since the start of the year, but further earnings downgrades mean the earnings multiple has actually risen to 16.8 at the current share price of 188p.
The prospect of RBS’s privatisation has receded again, taking analyst forecasts of a resumption of dividends with it. As such, downbeat investor sentiment could persist for a considerable time, and I continue to see little attraction in the shares.
