Is it time to sell flyers Unilever plc, National Grid plc and British American Tobacco plc?

Defensives Unilever plc (LON: ULVR), National Grid plc (LON: NG) and British American Tobacco plc (LON: BATS) look pricey.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Is it time to bank some gains in the defensives? We’ve seen the shares of defensive firms enjoy a good run up over recent years. At today’s 3,668p, consumer goods multinational Unilever (LSE: ULVR) is up around 184% since 2009. Energy transmission system operator National Grid (LSE: NG) is up 121% since 2010, and cigarette manufacturer and distributor British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS) has put on 214% since 2009.

Valuation spikes

Valuations look full. Unilever trades on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 for 2017, National Grid’s forward P/E rating is almost 18, and British American Tobacco’s is just over 19. The fallen pound seems to have caused a sharp up-spurt in these firms’ share prices as foreign trade becomes worth more when converted to pounds. When I see sharp moves up on a chart after a long period of steady rising, it makes me think that it’s time to consider taking some money off the table.

Such patterns on a share price chart can potentially end up looking like blow-offs and could presage change ahead. Maybe the relative weakness in the pound will reverse. Maybe global growth will slow. Many things could alter the steadily rising pattern with which we’ve become familiar for these shares.

Should you invest £1,000 in Taylor Wimpey right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets. And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Taylor Wimpey made the list?

See the 6 stocks

Valuations move in cycles

One driver for the defensives’ high valuations is that such firms become popular during times of uncertainty and we’ve seen plenty of that in recent years. However, the valuations of defensive companies can move in cycles. Should the macroeconomic environment start to look more benign, there’s a good chance that we’ll see reversion to more modest valuations because of that.

However, timing the market is difficult. These are good firms and they’re as far away as it’s possible to be from the cyclical business pressures affecting many other companies on the stock market. An investment horizon measured in years could lead to a good outcome eventually regardless of any over-valuation creeping into things now.

Sell some and hold some?

If I’d been holding Unilever, National Grid and British American Tobacco for the last six or seven years I would take profits now while still allowing a smaller core holding to run. Yet some market commentators expect multinational shares and defensives to be surprisingly strong performers for the rest of 2016.

Whether to buy, sell or hold at any particular point is always a very personal decision. But owning shares in good quality defensive firms such as these three puts you one step ahead and makes the issue of timing less important — as long as your investment horizon stretches into years rather than just days, weeks or months.

Looking forward, City analysts expect Unilever to grow its earnings by 8% next year, British American Tobacco by 9% and National Grid’s earnings to be flat. These aren’t declines in earnings, so perhaps the best strategy is to hold on tight after all.

Passive income stocks: our picks

Do you like the idea of dividend income?

The prospect of investing in a company just once, then sitting back and watching as it potentially pays a dividend out over and over?

If you’re excited by the thought of regular passive income payments, as well as the potential for significant growth on your initial investment…

Then we think you’ll want to see this report inside Motley Fool Share Advisor — ‘5 Essential Stocks For Passive Income Seekers’.

What’s more, today we’re giving away one of these stock picks, absolutely free!

Get your free passive income stock pick

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Kevin Godbold has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Unilever. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

These 4 FTSE shares have crashed hard. Which do I like today?

These four FTSE 100 stocks have plunged in value over the last month. But after this latest market meltdown, which…

Read more »

Investing Articles

1 FTSE 250 stock that analysts are calling a ‘Strong Buy’

The FTSE 250 can be overlooked by investors, but analysts believe this stock in particular could be undervalued by as…

Read more »

Close up of a group of friends enjoying a movie in the cinema
Investing Articles

I asked ChatGPT to name 5 FTSE shares for the perfect SIPP. Here’s what it picked

Harvey Jones called on ChatGPT to help him decide which shares would be right to buy for a well-balanced SIPP.…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Should I load up on Rolls-Royce shares after the 17% drop?

Rolls-Royce shares have pulled back sharply in the FTSE 100 in recent weeks, leaving this Fool to wonder if he…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Is this the best S&P 500 stock to consider buying in these volatile times?

With bullion prices still rocketing, I think buying the S&P 500's only gold stock is worth serious consideration right now.

Read more »

Young Asian woman with head in hands at her desk
Investing Articles

Yielding 7.25% but with a P/E of 186x! What’s up with the BP share price?

Harvey Jones thought the BP share price was a brilliant bargain but it's only brought him a world of trouble.…

Read more »

Asian man looking concerned while studying paperwork at his desk in an office
Investing Articles

Down 26% with a 7% yield! Could this little-known FTSE 250 gem make a comeback?

Mark Hartley considers the long-term prospects of FTSE 250 recruiter Page Group. Weak results have sent the price tumbling but…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Analysts are calling Diageo shares a strong buy! Are they mad?

Analysts still have faith in Diageo shares, with 10 of them giving it the highest possible stock rating. Harvey Jones…

Read more »