A quick way to reject weak shares

How to identify potential investment howlers, fast.

| More on:

The content of this article was relevant at the time of publishing. Circumstances change continuously and caution should therefore be exercised when relying upon any content contained within this article.

When investing, your capital is at risk. The value of your investments can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you put in.

Read More

The content of this article is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, any form of personal advice. Investments in a currency other than sterling are exposed to currency exchange risk. Currency exchange rates are constantly changing, which may affect the value of the investment in sterling terms. You could lose money in sterling even if the stock price rises in the currency of origin. Stocks listed on overseas exchanges may be subject to additional dealing and exchange rate charges, and may have other tax implications, and may not provide the same, or any, regulatory protection as in the UK.

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More.

Companies often have a great ‘story’ that attracts me to them for their upside potential. However, if things don’t turn out as expected my capital is at risk if the company has a weak balance sheet.

Balance sheet weakness means a firm isn’t built on solid financial foundations, so it makes sense to check the strength of the balance sheet before anything else and reject shares that don’t measure up. How should I do that?

Three-step check

One answer came to me in a neat, time-efficient package delivered by well-respected financial blogger and investor Paul Scott when I read one of his Small Cap Value Reports over on Stockopedia. Paul occasionally posts on The Motley Fool bulletin boards under the pseudonym Paulypilot and used to be a company financial director. Paul’s approach is to look at a firm’s balance sheet and follow this three-step check:

1) Look for a positive net tangible asset value (NTAV)

Using AIM tiddler Robinson (LSE: RBN) as an example, we can click on the preliminary results report and scroll down to the balance sheet, which it labels as Statement of Financial Position. To find the net asset value we first locate the line labelled Net Assets, hown with a value of £24.557m.

To strip that down to tangible net assets we take off the intangibles. Scroll back up to the top of the balance sheet and locate Goodwill at £1.264m and Other Intangible Assets at £6.655m. Now take both those figures from the net asset figure to arrive at an NTAV of £16.638m.

That’s a positive figure as required by the test as the firm has more in property, plant, equipment and other ‘real’ assets than it carries in borrowings and other liabilities.

Robinson makes packaging for fast-moving consumer goods and this is a good test for such a trading company. However, other firms in other sectors can run asset-light businesses and some intangible assets can be valuable. So it pays to judge each case individually and sometimes it’s worth loosening this test and looking for a positive Net Asset Value that includes intangibles instead.

2) Work out the current ratio and ensure it’s ideally at least 1.2  

A firm’s current ratio (AKA the working capital ratio) gives an indication of its ability to meet short-term debt obligations. A reading of one or above is good but the higher the better. Paul aims for at least 1.2.

To work out the current ratio, divide Current Assets by Current Liabilities. From Robinson’s balance sheet, Current Assets come to £15.645m and Current Liabilities to £14.159m. The Current Ratio works out at 1.1. Not 1.2, but close.

3) Make sure net debt and pension deficit is acceptable   

Under Current Liabilities, Robinson’s balance sheet shows Borrowings of £4.461m. Under Non-Current Liabilities, the borrowings figure is £1.132m. Adding these together, the gross borrowings figure is £5.593m.

To get the net debt figure, take off the cash the firm shows it holds on the balance sheet. Cash is listed under Current Assets at £4.688m, so the net debt is £0.905m. Is that acceptable? I like to compare debt figures to a company’s earnings to help me judge. Scrolling up to Robinsons’ Group Income Statement, I see the firm posted an Operating Profit Before Exceptional Items of £2.407m — over twice the firm’s net debt figure.

However, I like to be even more conservative and use gross debt rather than net debt figures rather as cash has a habit of disappearing without much notice but debts hang around for much longer! Gross debt stands at about 2.32 times the firm’s operating profit, which is acceptable.

Happily, Robinson declares Pension Assets of £3.747m and no pension liabilities, so I’ll ignore the pension arrangements for the time being.

I decided not to invest in Robinson recently, but the firm got through the three-step check and I rejected it for other reasons.

Should you invest, the value of your investment may rise or fall and your capital is at risk. Before investing, your individual circumstances should be assessed. Consider taking independent financial advice.

Kevin Godbold has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

More on Investing Articles

Investing Articles

£10,000 invested in a FTSE 100 index fund in 2019 is now worth…

Charlie Carman analyses the FTSE 100's recent performance and reveals a higher-risk growth stock from the index for investors to…

Read more »

Investing Articles

The ITV share price is down 27% in 5 years. Can it recover?

ITV doubled its earnings per share last year. But the ITV share price is still well below where it stood…

Read more »

US Stock

This S&P 500 darling is down 25% in the past month! Here’s what’s going on

Jon Smith explains why a hot S&P 500 stock has dropped in the past few weeks -- and why his…

Read more »

Young woman working at modern office. Technical price graph and indicator, red and green candlestick chart and stock trading computer screen background.
Investing Articles

The Greggs share price is too tasty for me to ignore!

Christopher Ruane has been nibbling a treat at what he hopes is a bargain price. Is the Greggs share price as…

Read more »

Investing Articles

How high can the Rolls-Royce share price go in 2025? Here’s what the experts say

The Rolls-Royce share price has smashed through even the most ambitious predictions, so where does the City think it'll go…

Read more »

Investing Articles

The 2025 Stocks and Shares ISA countdown is on! It’s time to plan

It's that time of year again, to close out our 2024-25 Stocks and Shares ISA strategy and make plans for…

Read more »

Investing Articles

Here’s the 12-month price forecast for ITV shares!

ITV shares have leapt after news of a large profits bump in 2024. Can the FTSE 250 share build on…

Read more »

photo of Union Jack flags bunting in local street party
Growth Shares

Why the FTSE 250 isn’t matching the all-time highs of the FTSE 100

Jon Smith flags a key reason why the FTSE 250 hasn't performed that well over the past year, but notes…

Read more »