Shares in mining group Anglo American (LSE: AAL) have fallen by 26% since last Monday. The shares have sold off as the recent rally in iron ore and other commodity prices has pulled back.
Should shareholders use this weakness to buy more, or simply sit tight? I’m tempted to say that Anglo American shares look reasonably priced at the moment. The firm is making decent progress with its quest to raise cash, and recently agreed a $1.5bn sales deal for its niobium and phosphates business. That’s almost half of this year’s target total of $3bn-$4bn already.
Earnings forecasts also suggest that the outlook for Anglo may be improving. Broker estimates for 2016 have risen by 116% since January, to $0.39 per share. Next year’s earnings are expected to be $0.59 per share. This puts Anglo on a fairly reasonably 16 times 2017 forecast earnings.
For a cyclical stock emerging from a deep downturn, this doesn’t seem too expensive to me. I intend to hang on to my Anglo shares, and am fairly confident that the outlook will continue to improve. For investors wanting to increase their exposure to this sector, the current weakness might be a good opportunity.
Debt needs to be managed more carefully
Centrica (LSE: CNA) shareholders paid the price for their firm’s high levels of debt last week. Management was forced into a £700m placing in order to reduce debt and avoid a credit rating downgrade.
Centrica intends to use half of the proceeds to fund two acquisitions in the energy sector which the company believes will “immediately contribute to earnings and cash flow”. Although the placing surprised investors, it should leave the firm in a stronger position. Now could also be a good time to make acquisitions in the energy sector.
Despite last week’s placing, Centrica emphasised that it has no plan to cut the dividend payout. Based on the latest broker forecasts, this suggests that the firm will pay a dividend of about 12p this year, giving a potential yield of 5.7%.
Now might not be a bad time for income investors to top up with Centrica.
Is there a silver lining?
I’m less confident about silver miner Hochschild Mining (LSE: HOC), whose shares have fallen by 25% since last Tuesday. In some ways this isn’t a surprise. The price of silver also lost some ground last week, falling to around $17 per ounce from a recent high of $18/oz. Hochschild shares are still 139% higher than they were at the start of the year. I’d expect a pullback after such a ferocious rally.
The good news is that Hochschild’s financial position has improved since the firm raised $100m last year to help reduce debt. A further reduction in debt is expected this year as the firm’s Inmaculada mine ramps up.
However, my view is that Hochschild shares are probably quite fully valued at the moment. The shares are now valued on about 29 times 2017 forecast earnings and offer no yield. Although further earnings upgrades are possible if the price of silver stabilises at current levels, I’m not sure how fast profits will rise beyond current forecasts.
I’d rather wait for the firm’s next set of results before deciding whether to invest any fresh cash in Hochschild.
